An area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico developed into Tropical Depression Two yesterday afternoon, and this afternoon it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene – the first named storm of the season. It should be noted, however, that Arlene is technically not the first sub(tropical) cyclone of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January.

As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Arlene was centered near 26.7°N 86.2°W, and was moving southward at about 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Arlene is expected to continue drifting southward to south-southeastward, and will likely be short-lived. With vertical wind shear greater than 40 knots (45 mph) and 500-700 mb relative humidity values of under 45 percent, Arlene should begin to weaken tonight, and should become a remnant low by tomorrow evening. Since Arlene is not expected to make landfall as a tropical storm, no watches or warnings are currently in effect, and impacts in Southern Florida and western Cuba are likely to be minimal.

The average first tropical storm formation in the Atlantic based on 1991-2020 climatology is June 20, and the average second tropical storm formation in the Atlantic is July 17. Including the January subtropical storm, the Atlantic is ahead of climatology by about six weeks.