Tropical Storm Bret, the third storm and second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Monday afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Bret tied the record for the earliest named storm in the Atlantic Main Development Region with…Tropical Storm Bret of 2017, which also happened to be the first Atlantic storm I ever covered on this blog. Bret is expected to pass through the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm on Thursday, though watches and warnings have not yet been issued.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Bret was centered near 11.9°N 47.0°W, and was moving westward at approximately 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. With no reconnaissance or scatterometer data available, there is higher-than-normal uncertainty about Bret’s current intensity. The forecast for Bret has become much clearer than yesterday. Bret currently has an exposed low-level circulation, and appears to already be affected by westerly mid-level shear. While deep-layer shear over Bret is currently light (about 5 knots), Bret’s fast forward speed is inducing a moderate mid-level shear that has limited Bret’s ability to intensify. Although some modest intensification is still possible, it now appears unlikely Bret will reach hurricane strength. Deep-layer shear is expected to further increase to greater than 20 knots by late Thursday, which should lead to Bret dissipating over the eastern Caribbean. There is now high confidence Bret will take the western track and enter the eastern Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress of Bret, and be prepared for tropical storm conditions on Thursday afternoon/evening.

In addition to Tropical Storm Bret, Invest 93L also has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently gives 93L a 70 percent chance of development with 48 hours, and an 80 percent chance within 7 days. However, models today have trended significantly weaker with 93L, and it is possible that chances may be reduced in coming updates. 93L is currently disorganized with limited convective activity, and tropical cyclogenesis does not appear to be imminent. If 93L develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Cindy. At the moment, 93L does not appear to be a threat to land areas.