The first half of August has passed with no tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin, which is not terribly unusual. Unlike August of last year, which went all month without a single tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic, it appears likely that the Atlantic basin will come to life within the next 2 weeks. This is right in line with climatology, as there is a sharp spike in activity beginning around August 20 climatologically.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring two tropical waves for gradual development over the tropical Atlantic. The eastern wave is currently given a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within 7 days. The western wave is also given a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, but only a 10 percent chance within 7 days. It appears likely that the tropical Atlantic will have a “monsoon trough breakdown” setup over the coming days, where low-level vorticity maximums may spin up into a tropical cyclone or two. At the moment, there is no consistency with models, with some runs favoring the western system and some favoring the eastern system. At this range, it is still too early to predict which one (or both) of the waves may develop or what track they will take, but it appears very possible that the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) will see at least one tropical cyclone develop over the next week.

In addition to the two tropical waves marked by the National Hurricane Center, there is another system worth watching that could pose a threat to the western United States Gulf Coast. A weak tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands currently isn’t producing much deep convection, but some gradual development is possible by early next week when it moves into the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Global models are showing a weak reflection of this system, but models have often been too weak with Gulf of Mexico systems in the past (like Hanna 2020) so it is definitely a system to watch. I’d expect the NHC to mention this wave soon.