The Atlantic basin is in the midst of a tropical cyclone outbreak. Tropical Storm Emily formed yesterday morning and quickly dissipated this morning over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and is no threat to land. Tropical Depression Six strengthened into Tropical Storm Gert late last night, but has since weakened to a tropical depression and is expected to dissipate soon. This blog will focus on Tropical Storm Franklin and Tropical Depression Nine, which are currently the main threats in the basin.

Yesterday afternoon, a tropical wave organized into Tropical Storm Franklin over the eastern Caribbean. Franklin is the seventh named storm of the Atlantic season, and is expected to strengthen into the second hurricane of the season in 4-5 days. It is somewhat unusual to have tropical cyclones form in this part of the basin, especially during an El Nino year. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Franklin was centered near 14.3°N 70.1°W, and was moving westward at about 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. A reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating Franklin for the past few hours and suggests that the tropical storm is poorly organized, and the circulation is less defined than yesterday. Despite very warm sea surface temperatures, due to the current disorganized structure, only gradual intensification is expected before Franklin turns northward and heads towards Hispaniola. The circulation of Franklin is likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola. In addition, the SHIPS model is suggesting wind shear could be fairly high when Franklin reemerges into the Atlantic. After Hispaniola, Franklin is expected to turn to the northeast, and then back to the north potentially at the end of the period. Unlike the SHIPS model, the global models suggest intensification to a hurricane is likely, so the current National Hurricane Center forecast predicts Franklin will become a minimal hurricane at the end of the forecast period. Interests in Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands should closely monitor the progress of Franklin, which is likely to be a significant rainfall event. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, while a Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for the eastern and northern coast of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

This afternoon, a broad area of low pressure (previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine) acquired sufficient organization to be classified as Tropical Depression Nine over the central Gulf of Mexico. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Nine was centered near 25.2°N 91.6°W, and was moving westward at approximately 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Nine barely qualifies as a tropical depression currently, with a recent reconnaissance aircraft struggling to find a well-defined circulation. Regardless, the circulation of Nine is expected to tighten up as the cyclone approaches the South Texas coast. Due to the depression’s fast forward speed and limited time over water, it appears unlikely that Nine will be any stronger than a weak tropical storm at landfall. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect from the Mouth of Rio Grande to Port O’Connor, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect from Port O’Connor to Sargent, Texas. The primary threat with Nine is likely to be rainfall since rapid intensification before landfall appears unlikely.