The Atlantic tropics remain active, though none of the current systems are intense at the moment. Tropical Depression Gert became a post-tropical remnant low this morning. Tropical Storm Harold has weakened to a depression, while Tropical Storm Franklin is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone over the central Caribbean Sea.

Tropical Storm Franklin appears to have become less organized than yesterday, and barely qualifies as a tropical cyclone at the moment. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, the estimated center of Franklin was near 15.8°N 71.4°W, and was moving northwestward at approximately 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with a minimum pressure of 1002 mb. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Franklin for the past several hours. It appears that Franklin’s old center is losing definition well west of the convective mass, while a new center may be developing closer to Franklin’s mid-level center. The aircraft recently found a wind shift just west of NHC’s center estimate. Moderate wind shear should prevent significant organization, but some slight re-intensification cannot be ruled out before Franklin reaches the Hispaniola coastline if the mid-level and low-level centers align. There is also a possibility that Franklin could temporarily lose its status as a tropical cyclone due to the land interaction with Hispaniola, if Franklin is unable to develop a coherent new center tonight. Franklin is expected to move mostly northward tonight, and make landfall over the southwestern Dominican Republic early tomorrow morning. The primary threat with Franklin will be heavy rainfall and mudslides in the mountains of Hispaniola. A Tropical Storm Warning is currently in effect for the following locations: the Dominican Republic entire south coast from Haiti border eastward to Cabo Engano, the Dominican Republic entire north coast from Haiti border eastward to Cabo Engano, and Haiti’s entire south coast from Anse d’Hainault eastward to the Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Watch is currently in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

After Hispaniola, Franklin is expected to turn to the northeast, and will likely initially struggle to reorganize due to moderate-strong wind shear. In about 4-5 days, the shear is expected to decrease and become more diffluent while Franklin remains over warm waters, so intensification appears likely at that time. In fact, nearly all of the global models develop Franklin into a hurricane by late this weekend. In the long range, Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may need to keep an eye on Franklin, but it remains too soon to determine potential impacts for these areas.

Very early this morning, Tropical Depression Nine over the Gulf of Mexico strengthened into Tropical Storm Harold, the ninth named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Around 10:00 CDT this morning, Harold made landfall near Padre Island, Texas, with maximum sustained winds of at least 45 knots (50 mph). This makes Harold the first Atlantic tropical cyclone to make landfall in the continental United States this season. Harold has now weakened to a tropical depression, and all coastal watches and warnings have been discontinued. Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat with Harold. Harold is expected to dissipate tomorrow.