Tropical Storm Franklin intensified into the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season Saturday morning, and is expected to intensify further to major hurricane intensity well offshore of the United States east coast. The larger threat is Tropical Depression Ten, which has just developed over the northwestern Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel. TD Ten is expected to become a hurricane and make landfall somewhere in northwestern Florida, but the exact details on track and intensity are still highly uncertain at this time.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Franklin was centered near 23.8°N 67.5°W, and was moving north-northwestward at about 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 982 mb. This makes Franklin the second hurricane of the season, with Don being the first in late July. On average, the second Atlantic hurricane forms on August 26, so it is right on time with climatology. Franklin has rapidly organized during the last 24 hours, and appears to be developing an eye on satellite imagery. Due to light shear and sea surface temperatures just below 30°C (86°F), additional intensification appears likely, and Franklin is currently expected to intensify into the first major (Category 3+) hurricane of the season. In fact, Category 4 intensity remains a possibility. Franklin is expected to turn to the northwest between the United States and Bermuda, and then should turn northeastward on Wednesday as it begins to weaken. However, some recent models indicate that there is a possibility that Franklin misses the trough and turns east farther south, which suggests Bermuda needs to closely monitor the progress of Franklin.

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea became significantly better organized today, being classified as the tenth tropical depression of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Ten was centered near 21.1°N 86.1°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Unfortunately, there has not been any scatterometer data to provide an accurate assessment of the depression’s intensity, though surface observations suggests winds are currently fairly light. This is expected to change as the depression moves slowly to the southeast and then back to the north tomorrow and early Monday. After that time, the depression is expected to accelerate to the north and then the northeast, reaching northwestern Florida by early Wednesday morning. The intensity forecast for Ten is challenging. Much of the statistical guidance does not show intensification beyond low-end Category 1 status due to continued moderate shear. However, the hurricane models are significantly stronger, bringing the depression to near major hurricane intensity. Considering the depression has developed much faster than anticipated, the stronger solutions definitely seem to be a possibility. Interests along the western coast of Florida should have a hurricane plan ready and should monitor Ten closely, which is expected to be named Idalia once maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph.