An area of low pressure has formed in association with a tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic, designated Invest 95L by the National Hurricane Center. 95L is likely to become a powerful hurricane by the weekend as it moves generally west-northwestward over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

As of 18:00 UTC Monday, Invest 95L was centered near 11.4°N 34.9°W. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized, but 95L does not appear to have a well-defined circulation yet. 95L is likely to develop a well-defined center tomorrow or early Wednesday, and a tropical depression should form by then. The NHC gives 95L a 90 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a near 100 percent chance within 5 days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Lee. Nearly all of the models develop 95L into a hurricane by the weekend, when it is expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands. The SHIPS guidance predicts that 95L will have a very favorable environment for development, with wind shear less than 15 knots, sea surface temperatures warmer than 29°C (84.2°F), and sufficient mid-level moisture. It should be noted that some global and hurricane models are exceptionally intense with this system, bringing it to high-end Category 4 status. Most of the model consensus keeps 95L north of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend, before eventually turning to the northwest in a week or so. It remains too soon to definitively tell if 95L will affect the United States East Coast, Atlantic Canada or Bermuda, but it is a storm that should be monitored closely for forecast changes as it is likely to become an intense hurricane.