The Atlantic’s thirteenth named storm, Lee, formed this afternoon over the central tropical Atlantic. Lee is in a very favorable environment for intensification and is expected to become, at least, a Category 4 hurricane by late this weekend as it passes to the north of the Lesser Antilles.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Lee was centered near 13.2°N 41.8°W, and was moving west-northwestward at about 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. Conditions are nearly optimal for Lee to intensify. The tropical storm is already well-organized with little evidence of shear, and should develop an inner core soon. In fact, the National Hurricane Center (NHC)’s projected 120 knots (140 mph) peak for Lee in its first forecast was the highest on record. During the next 7 days, Lee will be over sea surface temperatures of 29-30 C (84.2-86 F), with vertical wind shear of less than 15 knots and sufficient mid-level moisture. Steady to rapid intensification appears likely over the coming days, especially after Lee is able to develop an inner core. It currently appears that the core of Lee will pass far enough north away from the Lesser Antilles islands so impacts should be less severe. While most of the model guidance suggests that Lee will turn to the north before reaching the east coast of the United States, it is too far out to determine how Lee will affect the United States, Bermuda or Atlantic Canada.

In addition to Lee, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two other systems for development. Invest 96L is a tropical wave that just exited the coast of Africa. The NHC gives this system a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within 7 days. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should keep a close eye to this system. In addition, the NHC marked the remnants of Hurricane Franklin for potential regeneration over the northeastern Atlantic, with a near-zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within 7 days. However, recent model guidance has trended away from this possibility.