Broad area of low pressure worth watching for possible tropical development off U.S. east coast

Broad area of low pressure worth watching for possible tropical development off U.S. east coast

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1, though so far, no tropical cyclones have developed in the Atlantic basin this season despite expectations of an extremely active season. This is not particularly unusual, as the average first named storm in the Atlantic basin does not occur until approximately June 25. However, there is now a system worth watching for potential development, designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center. A broad area of low pressure has developed over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to emerge into the western Atlantic Ocean tomorrow, and some slight development is possible later this week. Environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development, and impacts are expected to be minimal except heavy rainfall over parts of Florida in the short term.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook for Tuesday, June 11, 2024. (Source: National Hurricane Center)

In their 2:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center gave 90L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 20 percent chance within five days. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.9°N 83.9°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1009 mb. 90L is expected to move generally northeastward over the next few days, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. The most recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF models both suggest some slight development is possible, though significant development appears very unlikely at this time. The first name on the North Atlantic naming list is Alberto.

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