Tropical Storm Alberto – the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – formed over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and is expected to make landfall over central Mexico early tomorrow morning. Alberto is the latest first named storm in the Atlantic basin since Arthur in 2014; however, this is nothing unusual: the long-term average date for the first named storm in the Atlantic is June 25.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT (4:00 p.m. CDT local time) Wednesday, Tropical Storm Alberto was centered near 21.9°N 95.3°W, and was moving west-southwestward at approximately 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 995 mb. As is typical with early-season tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico, Alberto is a broad system that developed out of the Central American Gyre (CAG). As it is a large tropical storm, impacts from Alberto will occur far away from the center of circulation, with storm surge and heavy rainfall affecting areas as far north as the Texas coast. While environmental conditions appear conducive until landfall with fairly low shear and sea surface temperatures of around 30°C (86°F), Alberto’s large size and wind field suggest only some slight additional intensification is likely.

In addition to Alberto, there are two other systems in the Atlantic basin worth watching for potential tropical development: recently-designated Invest 92L over the southwestern Atlantic, and another area of low pressure expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in a few days. According to the National Hurricane Center, 92L has a 20 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and 5 days. The Gulf of Mexico system has a near 0 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within 5 days. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is Beryl.