Hurricane Helene – the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season – was upgraded Wednesday morning as it emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Helene is expected to intensify into a powerful major hurricane tomorrow, and is expected to make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle Thursday evening.

As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Hurricane Helene was centered near 22.5°N 86.6°W, and was moving northward at approximately 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 978 mb. However, recent dropsonde data indicates that the pressure has fallen further to around 974 mb. Helene is expected to be in a very favorable environment up until landfall, with wind shear less than 10 knots, sea surface temperatures warmer than 30°C (86°F), and mid-level relative humidity values above 70%. This should allow steady, if not rapid, intensification, and the rapid intensification indices are much higher than the climatological mean. The National Hurricane Center currently expects Helene to attain Category 4 intensity before landfall. Helene is expected to produce significant storm surge over the western Florida coast, and could reach as high as 20 feet in the Big Bend region. After landfall, Helene is expected to take a turn to the northwest, bringing heavy rainfall over the Appalachian Mountains region. Helene is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday.

Although the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has been far less active than predicted so far in storm count, the Gulf of Mexico has been quite active. Helene is the fourth hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this season, and is expected to be the fourth hurricane to make landfall in the United States.