CYCLONIC FURY

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin in exactly two months, on June 1. Although the season fell somewhat short of the most bullish forecasts, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season was still very active and devastating, with a total of 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Although an above-average season is still likely in 2025, the 2025 season is likely to be somewhat less active than 2024, as environmental conditions appear likely to be somewhat less favorable.

Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures

Since 1995, the North Atlantic basin has generally been in an era of high hurricane activity, enhanced by a positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In a classic positive AMO pattern, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in the deep tropical Atlantic and over the far North Atlantic, and often slightly cooler than normal off the United States east coast. Although sea surface temperatures in most of the North Atlantic basin remain warmer than normal, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) are somewhat cooler than the last two years. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic have a strong positive correlation with overall activity, especially from May onward. With a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation expected for the first half of April, some anomalous warming in the MDR is possible, due to weaker trade winds during the -NAO phase. However, the due to intraseasonal variability, it is unlikely that the -NAO pattern will persist continuously over the next few months. Even though sea surface temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic are likely to be cooler than the last two seasons, they are still expected to be at least slightly warmer than normal, which is more than sufficient for an above average season if El Niño does not develop (more on this below).

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

According to the Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is still present over the equatorial Pacific, though the event has arguably dissipated. I expect the CPC to officially declare La Niña over in their next monthly update. This is very normal; ENSO events usually weaken and dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. The latest weekly Niño 3.4 value was +0.2°C. The 90-day averaged Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +5.58, indicative of weak Niña atmospheric conditions. Sea surface temperatures over the far eastern equatorial Pacific in the Niño 1+2 region are well above normal, with the latest weekly value of +1.2°C – indicative of a coastal El Niño, also known as El Niño costero. El Niño costero events are usually short-lived, are not officially considered El Niño events, and are not always a sign of an oncoming canonical El Niño event. This El Niño costero event is not likely to be a factor for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. However, ENSO-neutral is likely to remain over the coming months. The CPC’s March probabilistic forecast for the August-September-October (ASO) period is: a 49% chance of ENSO-neutral, a 38% chance of La Nina, and only a 13% chance of El Niño. The chances of a strong El Niño are even lower, with the forecast only giving a ~3% chance that the Niño 3.4 region will have a sea surface temperature anomaly exceeding +1.0°C. Therefore, it appears unlikely that El Niño will develop before the peak of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and a recurrence of La Niña is much more likely. It is rare for El Niño events to follow a first-year La Niña event (such as 2024-25). Without El Niño, it is likely that shear over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea will be below-to-near normal, which should enhance hurricane activity despite a cooler tropical Atlantic than the last two years.

West African Monsoon & Projected Precipitation

During most recent hurricane seasons, the West African Monsoon has been stronger than normal, favoring enhanced precipitation in the Sahel region of Africa. In fact, last season the African easterly jet was so strong, the African monsoon trough was extremely north-displaced – leading to an anomalous lull of peak season activity and the Cabo Verde hurricane season extending into October. The NMME model guidance shows a north-displaced African monsoon trough once again in 2025, with below-normal precipitation closer to the equator, and above-normal precipation in Africa’s Sahel region and over the Atlantic MDR. It also shows enhanced probabilities of below-normal precipitation in the Caribbean Sea, indicating that conditions will likely be somewhat less conducive for hurricane activity there than in 2024. However, it should be stressed that precipitation anomaly forecasts are not reliable indicators for predicting hurricane tracks.

CYCLONIC FURY’S first 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

• 13-17 named storms (1991-2020 average: 14.4)
• 6-9 hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 7.2)
• 2-4 major hurricanes (1991-2020 average: 3.2)
• 130 Accumulated Cyclone Energy units (1991-2020 average: 122)

Cyclonic Fury also gives the following probabilities of activity:

• Hyperactive season: 15% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 160 or greater) – This will likely only occur if tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures undergo significant anomalous warming before the start of the 2025 hurricane season.
• Above normal season: 35% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 126-159) – This is the most likely scenario, and will likely occur with weak ENSO conditions and somewhat above-average tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
• Near normal season: 30% (Does not fall into the Below Normal, Above Normal or Hyperactive criteria) – This could occur if atmospheric stability is significantly higher than expected, or if tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures anonamously cool before the hurricane season.
• Below normal season: 20% (Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 73 or less) – This is an unlikely scenario, and will likely only occur if a significant El Nino develops or an unexpected suppressing factor like 2013’s thermohaline circulation crash occurs.

This is the eighth straight year Cyclonic Fury has issued a pre-season Atlantic hurricane forecast, with the forecast typically being released in late March or early April. In 2018, in our March forecast, Cyclonic Fury predicted 11-16 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 125 units. This forecast verified quite well, as 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes formed, with an ACE index of 133. In 2019, our March forecast was much less accurate, as Cyclonic Fury predicted 8-13 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 80. Actual activity was significantly higher, as El Niño dissipated sooner than expected, with 18 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 132. In 2020, our March forecast correctly anticipated potential for an active season, as we predicted 13-18 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 2-5 major hurricanes with an ACE index of 140 units. However, our forecast was too low in every category since record-breaking activity occurred. In 2021, our March forecast once again correctly anticipated an above-average hurricane season, predicting 14-19 named storms (actual: 21), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 7) and 2-4 major hurricanes (actual: 4), and an ACE index of 135 units (actual: 146). Our forecast was a bit too low in named storms and ACE, but overall, the forecast was fairly accurate. In 2022, our March forecast overestimated the actual activity, predicting 15-20 named storms (actual: 14), 6-9 hurricanes (actual: 8), 3-5 major hurricanes (actual: 2), and an ACE index of 130 units (actual: 95). The near-average activity was significantly less than the above-average season that was anticipated. In 2023, our April forecast significantly underestimated the actual activity, predicting 11-14 named storms (actual: 20), 4-6 hurricanes (actual: 7), 1-3 major hurricanes (actual: 3), and an ACE index of 75 units (actual: 146). The forecast bust is attributed to the tropical Atlantic undergoing significant warming to record-warm levels prior to the start of the season, which significantly enhanced hurricane activity in 2023 beyond normal levels associated with El Niño. In 2024, our March forecast correctly anticipated a very active season, predicting 17-24 named storms (actual: 18), 8-12 hurricanes (actual: 11), 4-7 major hurricanes (actual: 5), and an ACE index of 180 units (actual: 160).

It should be stressed that pre-season hurricane forecasts are used for predicting overall activity in the Atlantic basin, not land threats, and that it is impossible at this extended range to determine what areas are at higher risk for hurricane impacts. Regardless, everyone in a hurricane-prone area should have a hurricane plan ready to go by the start of the season.