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Category: Active Tropics

Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) Sunday afternoon on an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level trough – giving the disturbance a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. It is possible that this area of disturbed weather could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days before it is expected to move inland into the Florida…

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It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first tropical cyclone advisory of 2018 Thursday afternoon, with the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression One-E over the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E, which remained poorly organized on Wednesday, became better organized Thursday with the formation of a sufficiently well defined circulation to be classified as a tropical depression. One-E is not expected to become a named tropical storm, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. One-E is…

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Invest 90E running out of time to develop

Invest 90E running out of time to develop

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has struggled to develop persistent deep convection near its elongated center of circulation, and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are diminishing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave it a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 10:25 AM PDT (1:25 PM EDT). This is down from the 70 percent chance NHC gave 90E early Wednesday morning. Because 90E…

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Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has become a little better organized today as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 90E a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. Scatterometer data from Tuesday afternoon indicates that the circulation has become much better defined, and an increase in convective organization will likely result in the formation of a tropical depression on Wednesday. 90E is no threat to land. As…

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Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

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The first “Invest” of the year for the Eastern Pacific – 90E – was designated Monday afternoon. 90E has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next five days, but conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by late week and into the weekend. 90E is no threat to any land areas. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

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Although the trough near the Bahamas did not develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, there is a strong model consensus that the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season may form next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the open Pacific near 10°N 120°W, and this system will need to be watched for potential development next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned…

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Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

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Late Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) of 2018 on the trough near the Bahamas. The system unofficially kicks off the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins in just four weeks on June 1. NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. It has not been given an “Invest” designation. The trough is expected to move westward,…

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Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

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Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed near the Bahamas today. A surface trough is expected to form north of Puerto Rico early Thursday morning, and this system has a very small chance of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics by Saturday. Wind shear over the region is currently extremely high – about 70 knots. However, shear is likely to drop on Friday as an upper-level low will move into the region – giving this system a narrow window of tropical or…

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Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in just one month, but there is a system worth watching for at least some slight development this weekend. A weak surface low pressure system is expected to develop southeast of the Bahamas late this week, and there is a low chance that it could take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics this weekend. This has been a hotspot for May tropical cyclones in recent years. Six tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic…

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Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

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It may be Veterans Day, but the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons still may not be over just yet. A trough of low pressure located southwest of the Azores – recently designated Invest 96L – has a chance to develop some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves northeastward. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 94E is becoming better organized quickly this afternoon and could become a tropical depression over the next couple days as it moves…

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