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Category: Active Tropics

Tropical development possible over Western Caribbean late this week

Tropical development possible over Western Caribbean late this week

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The Atlantic hurricane season may be winding down, but it does not appear to be over yet. This week, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea, and some gradual tropical development is possible. The Southwestern Caribbean is an area of the Atlantic basin favored for tropical development by climatology in late October. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a…

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Lan slowly strengthening – expected to brush Japan on Sunday and Monday

Lan slowly strengthening – expected to brush Japan on Sunday and Monday

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Typhoon Lan has slowly – rather than rapidly – intensified over the Western Pacific. Unlike the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which has featured well above average activity, the 2017 Pacific typhoon season has seen well below-average activity in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – only about 55 percent of normal. It appears unlikely now that Lan will be able to intensify into a super typhoon (150+ mph 1-minute sustained winds), although it cannot be ruled out yet. The Western Pacific has…

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Atlantic and East Pacific both quiet, Typhoon Lan a threat to Japan

Atlantic and East Pacific both quiet, Typhoon Lan a threat to Japan

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The Atlantic and East Pacific are both quiet today, with no tropical cyclones active or expected to form in the next five days. There is only one tropical cyclone worldwide – Typhoon Lan in the Western Pacific, which could pose a possible threat to Japan later this week. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Lan was centered near 12.1°N 132.3°E. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 977 mb. Lan is likely to strengthen…

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Ophelia now a post-tropical cyclone, expected to pass near British Isles on Monday

Ophelia now a post-tropical cyclone, expected to pass near British Isles on Monday

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Hurricane Ophelia has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds this evening. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT, Ophelia was centered near 49.2°N 13.3°W and was moving northward at about 44 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 75 knots (85 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 969 mb. The center of Ophelia is expected to pass over Western Ireland and then Northwestern Scotland on Monday, while slowly weakening as it moves quickly northeastward. Ex-Ophelia should dissipate by Tuesday. I will be back…

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Ophelia becomes the Atlantic’s easternmost major hurricane on record, Invests 92L and 91E may develop

Ophelia becomes the Atlantic’s easternmost major hurricane on record, Invests 92L and 91E may develop

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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, so far, has been full of surprises and it managed to pull off another one. On Saturday morning, Ophelia strengthened into a category 3 major hurricane located south-southeast of the Azores. This makes Ophelia the sixth major hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (the most since 2005), and the easternmost (but not the northernmost) Atlantic major hurricane on record. Only nine Atlantic hurricane seasons have featured as many or more major hurricanes than…

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Ophelia strengthens into a category 2 hurricane, expected to impact British Isles as a post-tropical cyclone

Ophelia strengthens into a category 2 hurricane, expected to impact British Isles as a post-tropical cyclone

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Hurricane Ophelia has continued to strengthened today, and is now a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical eastern Atlantic, a rare location for an Atlantic hurricane this intense. Ophelia is likely near or at its peak intensity, and a slow weakening trend is likely to begin tomorrow as it moves into a higher shear environment and waters cool. However, baroclinic forcing should allow Ophelia to retain hurricane-force winds through the weekend. As of 11:00…

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Strengthening Ophelia becomes the 10th hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season

Strengthening Ophelia becomes the 10th hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic season

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Tropical Storm Ophelia intensified into the tenth hurricane of the 2017 season on Wednesday afternoon, and continues to strengthen this evening. Additional strengthening is likely, and Ophelia could become a Category 2 hurricane on Thursday. Ophelia is likely to pass southeast of the Azores as a hurricane on Saturday, and then offshore Western Europe as an extratropical cyclone by Sunday and Monday. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has now featured ten hurricanes in a row – a feat that has…

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Ophelia expected to strengthen – no imminent threat to land

Ophelia expected to strengthen – no imminent threat to land

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Tropical Storm Ophelia is gradually becoming better organized over the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic, and is likely to become a category 1 hurricane later this week. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Ophelia was centered near 30.7°N 37.6°W, and was moving southeastward at about 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Ophelia has changed little in organization today, but low to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures should…

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Nate now post-tropical, Tropical Storm Ophelia forms over the eastern subtropical Atlantic

Nate now post-tropical, Tropical Storm Ophelia forms over the eastern subtropical Atlantic

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The Atlantic refuses to enter a lull. On Monday morning, Tropical Depression Nate became a post-tropical remnant low, but a new tropical storm came to life over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Invest 91L has developed into Tropical Storm Ophelia well southwest of the Azores. Ophelia is the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and has potential to become the season’s tenth hurricane by late week. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ophelia was centered near 31.4°N 39.9°W,…

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Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

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Hurricane Nate – the ninth hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season – made landfall around 7:00 p.m. CDT near the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Southeastern Louisiana. Nate is the third hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season (the fourth if Hurricane Maria’s landfall in Puerto Rico is included). This season has featured the most hurricanes to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Nate has almost certainly peaked in intensity and is…

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