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Category: Active Tropics

Harvey re-enters the Gulf of Mexico, PTC 10 becoming less likely to develop, Invest 93L likely to develop

Harvey re-enters the Gulf of Mexico, PTC 10 becoming less likely to develop, Invest 93L likely to develop

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Tropical Storm Harvey restrengthened slightly today as it has emerged into the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, but remains poorly organized and most of the convection is to the northwest of the center. Harvey is likely to make a second landfall in extreme eastern Texas or even western Louisiana early on Wednesday. Although Harvey is centered over water, the flood threat remains for Southeastern Texas. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten has failed to develop a well-defined center of circulation today, and…

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Tropical Storm Harvey causing catastrophic flooding over Texas, Potential TC Ten likely to develop off Southeastern United States Coast

Tropical Storm Harvey causing catastrophic flooding over Texas, Potential TC Ten likely to develop off Southeastern United States Coast

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Tropical Storm Harvey has continued to dump torrential rainfall over Southeastern Texas today, causing catastrophic flooding. The flooding is expected to continue for several days as Harvey moves very slowly, possibly re-emerging into the extreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Aside from Harvey, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten, which is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday before it eventually merges with a cold front. There is also a tropical wave…

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It’s over: Hurricane Harvey breaks the 4323-day United States major hurricane landfall drought

It’s over: Hurricane Harvey breaks the 4323-day United States major hurricane landfall drought

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All great things must come to an end. After 4,323 days (nearly 12 years), a major hurricane has once again made landfall in the United States. Hurricane Harvey made landfall between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor, Texas. Harvey made landfall as a category 4 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (130 mph) and an estimated minimum pressure of 938 mb. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 28.0°N 97.0°W and was moving northwestward…

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Category 4 Hurricane Harvey nearing landfall in Texas

Category 4 Hurricane Harvey nearing landfall in Texas

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Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified Friday into a category 4 hurricane – and is threatening to become the first category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Charley in 2004. Harvey has a very impressive structure with a well-defined eye surrounded by a ring of deep convection. As of 9:00 p.m. CDT (10:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 27.9°N 96.8°W, and was moving northwestward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 115 knots (130 mph), with an…

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Strengthening Hurricane Harvey likely to end the 12-year United States major hurricane drought

Strengthening Hurricane Harvey likely to end the 12-year United States major hurricane drought

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Just a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Harvey rapidly intensified today into the third hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Harvey is likely to intensify into a category 3 major hurricane before its expected landfall in Texas early Saturday, and is likely to end the 12-year drought of no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Harvey was centered near 25.2°N 94.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 10 mph….

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Regenerated Harvey likely to make landfall in South Texas as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, heavy rain the main threat

Regenerated Harvey likely to make landfall in South Texas as a strong tropical storm or hurricane, heavy rain the main threat

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The remnants of Harvey regenerated into a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning after convective organization improved and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed the presence of a closed, but broad, circulation. Harvey has become a little better organized throughout the day, with its central pressure falling a little while winds have remained steady. Harvey likely will not strengthen much during the next 12-24 hours due to its current broad structure, but by late tomorrow…

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Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

Harvey expected to regenerate over the Western Gulf of Mexico, 92L still could develop, Kenneth beginning to weaken

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have not become much better organized today, and are unlikely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone prior to crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. However, Harvey’s remnants are expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday, and are expected to continue on a west-northwestward to northwestward path. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development over the Gulf of Mexico, and Harvey could strike Northern Mexico, Texas, or perhaps even Louisiana as a strong…

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Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

Remnants of Harvey likely to regenerate, 92L could still develop, Hurricane Kenneth rapidly intensifies into a major hurricane over the Eastern Pacific

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The remnants of Tropical Storm Harvey have changed little in organization today, but are likely to regenerate, either over the Gulf of Honduras or Bay of Campeche. Aside from Harvey, Invest 92L east of the Bahamas has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next five days over the western Atlantic Ocean. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Kenneth rapidly intensified into a hurricane this morning, and is now likely going to become a category 3…

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Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

Harvey opens up into a wave over the central Caribbean

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Tropical Storm Harvey struggled today, weakening into a tropical depression earlier this afternoon. Since then, a reconnaissance aircraft investigated the storm and was unable to close off a well-defined center of circulation.  The National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Harvey to a remnant low at 11:00 p.m. EDT. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, the Remnants of Harvey were centered near 14.3°N 71.8°W, and was moving westward at about 22 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated…

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Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

Harvey remains disorganized over the Eastern Caribbean, but could strengthen later, 92L becoming less likely to develop

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Tropical Storm Harvey has changed little in organization since yesterday as it has dealt with moderate easterly wind shear, fast movement and dry mid-level air. The center of circulation is not particularly well defined, and significant strengthening is unlikely for the next day or two. However, conditions could become more favorable for strengthening as Harvey enters the western Caribbean Sea by early next week if it manages to avoid land interaction with the Honduras and Nicaragua.  The model guidance is…

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