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Category: Active Tropics

Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

Gert now extratropical, Tropical Storm Harvey forms east of the Lesser Antilles, 92L likely to develop

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Hurricane Gert transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday afternoon after its circulation became very elongated and became associated with frontal boundaries. As soon as Gert transitioned into an extratropical cyclone, however, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine developed into Tropical Storm Harvey east of the Windward Islands. Harvey is expected to approach the Windwards as a tropical storm, and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of the area. East of Harvey is Invest 92L, which has a high chance to…

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Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

Category 2 Gert likely to turn extratropical soon, three tropical waves could develop over next five days

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Hurricane Gert is likely peaking in intensity as a category 2 hurricane, the strongest storm of the season so far. Gert was able to develop a well-defined eye and strengthen at an unusually high latitude – the strongest hurricane so far north by wind speed since Alex in 2004. Gert should transition into an extratropical cyclone by early on Friday. There are three tropical disturbances across the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) that have a chance to develop (including Invests…

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Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

Gert becomes a hurricane, watching Invest 91L and another tropical wave behind it

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Tropical Storm Gert strengthened into the second hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season late Monday over the subtropical western Atlantic. Despite a rather unimpressive convective structure, microwave imagery indicates that Gert has nearly developed a closed eyewall. Gert is likely to strengthen some more over the next two days, possibly becoming a category 2 hurricane as it accelerates to the northeast. The average second hurricane in the Atlantic does not form until August 28, continuing the fast start to…

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TD Eight strengthens into Tropical Storm Gert, watching Invest 91L in eastern Atlantic

TD Eight strengthens into Tropical Storm Gert, watching Invest 91L in eastern Atlantic

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Tropical Depression Eight strengthened into Tropical Storm Gert Sunday afternoon, and is likely to strengthen to near hurricane strength by Tuesday as it turns northeastward into the mid-latitude Atlantic. Gert is the seventh named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and is unusually early for a “G” storm. Only three seasons since reliable records began in 1851 – 1936, 1995, and 2005 – had their seventh named storm form earlier. The average seventh named storm in the Atlantic does not…

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Tropical Depression Eight forms east of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression Jova struggling over the Eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression Eight forms east of the Bahamas, Tropical Depression Jova struggling over the Eastern Pacific

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The fast start to the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season continues. After nine days of being an invest, Invest 99L finally developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression Saturday evening. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Eight, located to the east-northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Eight is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm and has the potential to strengthen to near hurricane strength along the Gulf…

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Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

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Two investigative areas “invests” – one over the Atlantic (Invest 99L) and one over the Eastern Pacific (92E) have a good chance to develop into tropical depressions this weekend. 99L – an area of low pressure we have been tracking in the Atlantic for over a week – is expected to move into a more conducive environment for development this weekend as wind shear is expected to decrease. Invest 92E, associated with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, is very…

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Franklin dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, but could regenerate over the Eastern Pacific, tenacious Invest 99L still could develop

Franklin dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, but could regenerate over the Eastern Pacific, tenacious Invest 99L still could develop

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Hurricane Franklin made landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz around 1:00 a.m. CDT as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph) and a minimum pressure of 988 mb. Franklin’s circulation quickly dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico. However, the mid-level remnant energy of Franklin has a medium chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone over the Eastern Pacific, but if regeneration does occur, the new storm should be short-lived. Invest 99L remains…

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Franklin becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2017 as it nears landfall in Veracruz, Mexico, 99L becoming better organized

Franklin becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2017 as it nears landfall in Veracruz, Mexico, 99L becoming better organized

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Tropical Storm Franklin quickly intensified to the first hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season on Wednesday afternoon over the western Bay of Campeche. Franklin’s strengthening into a hurricane on August 9 is just one day ahead of the climatological average date of the first hurricane – August 10. Franklin is expected to make landfall during the next few hours in the Mexican state of Veracruz, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect from Puerto de Veracruz to Cabo Rojo. Hurricane…

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Franklin strengthens as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche, likely to become a hurricane, 99L could develop east of the Bahamas

Franklin strengthens as it emerges into the Bay of Campeche, likely to become a hurricane, 99L could develop east of the Bahamas

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Tropical Storm Franklin emerged into the Bay of Campeche earlier this evening, and has already begun to strengthen. Franklin is likely to strengthen some more over the next 24-30 hours before landfall occurs early on Thursday, and the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast brings Franklin to a minimal hurricane before landfall in Mainland Mexico. Hurricane Warnings, the first of 2017, have been issued for a portion of Mexico. As of 10:00 p.m. CDT (11:00 p.m. EDT) Tuesday, Tropical Storm…

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Franklin nearing landfall over the central Yucatan Peninsula, keep an eye on Invest 99L for possible development east of the Bahamas

Franklin nearing landfall over the central Yucatan Peninsula, keep an eye on Invest 99L for possible development east of the Bahamas

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Tropical Storm Franklin has strengthened today as it has approached the Yucatan Peninsula, although the cyclone has not rapidly intensified as much as previously expected. Although additional intensification seems unlikely before its first landfall over the Yucatan Peninsula, Franklin is expected. Aside from Franklin, it is still too soon to write off the struggling Invest 99L over the tropical Atlantic, which has a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone east of the Bahamas. Franklin likely to weaken over the…

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