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Category: Active Tropics

Fernanda weakens slightly, Tropical Storm Talas forms in South China Sea, three areas of interest in Atlantic and East Pacific

Fernanda weakens slightly, Tropical Storm Talas forms in South China Sea, three areas of interest in Atlantic and East Pacific

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Aside from Hurricane Fernanda, which has weakened slightly from yesterday, the global tropics have lit up today with several systems. In the Atlantic, a trough of low pressure has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Windward Islands by Tuesday. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Talas has developed over the South China Sea, and is likely to strengthen slightly over the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 97E is likely…

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Fernanda rapidly intensifies as expected, now a Category 4 hurricane in the deep Pacific tropics; 97E may develop

Fernanda rapidly intensifies as expected, now a Category 4 hurricane in the deep Pacific tropics; 97E may develop

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Hurricane Fernanda rapidly intensified last night into today to become the strongest tropical cyclone of 2017 so far in the Northern Hemisphere. Fernanda is now a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale – the first of such this year. Fernanda was able to rapidly intensify over very favorable conditions, including light wind shear, a moist environment and very warm sea surface temperatures. Some slight additional intensification is possible before eyewall replacement cycles will likely cause fluctuations in intensity…

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Fernanda becomes a hurricane, expected to rapidly intensify

Fernanda becomes a hurricane, expected to rapidly intensify

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Tropical Storm Fernanda strengthened into the third hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season Thursday afternoon, and is likely entering a period of rapid intensification in very favorable conditions. Fernanda is expected to become the second major hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season, and could pose a long-range threat to Hawaii. The Atlantic remains quiet, with no tropical cyclone development expected in the short term. Forecast for Fernanda As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Thursday, Fernanda was…

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Tropical Storm Fernanda forms in East Pacific, likely to become a strong hurricane

Tropical Storm Fernanda forms in East Pacific, likely to become a strong hurricane

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Tuesday evening, Invest 96E was classified as Tropical Depression Six-E over the Eastern Pacific. Today, Six-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Fernanda, the sixth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season.  The average formation date of the sixth named storm in the Eastern Pacific is July 30, which means that the start of the 2017 season has been above average. Fernanda is likely to become a hurricane over the open Pacific waters by this weekend as it continues on a…

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Atlantic likely about to become quiet, East Pacific likely to get active with Invest 96E

Atlantic likely about to become quiet, East Pacific likely to get active with Invest 96E

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The area of focus for tropical cyclone activity for the next two weeks (and possibly the rest of the month) is going to be the Eastern Pacific, with Invest 96E a possible long range Hawaii threat. The remnants of Tropical Depression Four have lost organization since yesterday and regeneration has become very unlikely. In addition, Saharan Dust and a Suppressed Kelvin Wave is expected to limit any development of African tropical waves in the near future. East Pacific: Eugene continues…

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Eugene rapidly weakening, Tropical Depression Four still could regenerate, decreasing chance of tropical wave developing

Eugene rapidly weakening, Tropical Depression Four still could regenerate, decreasing chance of tropical wave developing

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Hurricane Eugene in the East Pacific has rapidly weakened today as it has entered a more stable environment with decreasing sea surface temperatures, and is likely going to be downgraded to a tropical storm at the next advisory. In the Atlantic, the remnants of Tropical Depression Four are continuing to be monitored for possible regeneration, and there is still a low, but decreasing, chance that a tropical wave could develop east of the Lesser Antilles. There is now also a…

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Eugene becomes Northern Hemisphere’s first major hurricane of 2017, NHC highlights African wave for possible development 

Eugene becomes Northern Hemisphere’s first major hurricane of 2017, NHC highlights African wave for possible development 

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Sunday morning, Hurricane Eugene rapidly intensified to the first major (category 3+) hurricane of not only the 2017 Pacific hurricane season, but the first of the year in all of the Northern Hemisphere. However, Eugene has almost certainly peaked in intensity, and a weakening trend has likely already begun. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has mentioned a tropical wave in its tropical weather outlook that could develop by late this week as it approaches the Lesser…

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Eugene near hurricane strength, watching the remnants of TD Four, tropical wave exiting African coast

Eugene near hurricane strength, watching the remnants of TD Four, tropical wave exiting African coast

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Tropical Storm Eugene is very close to becoming the second hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. In the Atlantic, the remnants of Tropical Depression Four have a low chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone, and a tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa will need to be watched for development late next week when it is expected to be near the Lesser Antilles. Eugene expected to be upgraded to a hurricane, could peak at category 2 status Tropical…

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Tropical Depression Four degenerates into a remnant low, Tropical Storm Eugene forms in East Pacific, watching another wave

Tropical Depression Four degenerates into a remnant low, Tropical Storm Eugene forms in East Pacific, watching another wave

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The short life of Tropical Depression Four came to an end Friday afternoon when the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated it a remnant low. On the flip side, Invest 95E in the East Pacific has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Eugene, the fifth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. After Tropical Depression Four, another African tropical wave has a chance to develop by late next week near the Lesser Antilles. Dry air ends the life of Tropical Depression…

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Tropical Depression Four likely to degenerate into a remnant low soon, 95E likely to develop, Yet Another African Wave to Watch?

Tropical Depression Four likely to degenerate into a remnant low soon, 95E likely to develop, Yet Another African Wave to Watch?

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The tropics continue to remain active in both the Atlantic and Pacific. Tropical Depression Four formed yesterday in the Atlantic, but is likely to be downgraded to a remnant low soon, possibly even this evening. In the East Pacific, Invest 95E has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, both the GFS and some ECMWF runs have indicated the possibility of yet another African tropical wave to develop east of the…

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