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Category: Active Tropics

Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

Increasing chance of tropical development in Northwest Caribbean next weekend, Invest 92E designated in the East Pacific

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The tropics are likely about to get active in both the Atlantic and Pacific with multiple areas to watch. Several recent model runs have predicted the development of a large, disorganized tropical cyclone in the Northwest Caribbean in about a week. The 12z Saturday GFS, ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM models all predicted the second Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year to form by June 20.  The CMC track is farther east and predicts a landfall in Florida by Day 10,…

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Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

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A westerly wind burst is expected to occur in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. Westerly wind bursts are often associated with the development of El Niño, but they can also enhance cyclonic turning at the low latitudes. Most models agree that an area of low pressure is likely to form in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea in 48-72 hours, with the low likely moving inland into Central America by hour 96. Tropical cyclone development at this latitude is fairly rare because usually…

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Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

Beatriz dissipates inland Mexico, responsible for three fatalities; regeneration in Gulf of Mexico not expected

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Tropical Storm Beatriz made landfall Thursday afternoon in the Mexican state of Oaxaca around 4:00 PM local time. This morning, Beatriz rapidly weakened over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, dissipating by 10:00 AM CDT. Beatriz at landfall was estimated to have maximum winds of at least 40 knots (45 mph) along with a minimum pressure of 1002 millibars, based on a ship report. This makes Beatriz the strongest storm so far of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz has already been…

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Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

Special Update: Tropical Depression Two-E upgraded to Tropical Storm Beatriz based on ASCAT data

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At 1:00 PM CDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center upgraded Tropical Depression Two-E in the East Pacific to Tropical Storm Beatriz. This was based on a 15:43 UTC ASCAT pass that showed a few vectors with winds near 40 knots (45 mph). On this basis, the intensity was increased to 40 knots (45 mph) with a minimum pressure of 1004 millibars. This ties Beatriz with May’s Tropical Storm Adrian as the strongest storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Beatriz…

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Tropical Depression Two-E disorganized as it nears landfall in Mexico, no longer expected to become Tropical Storm Beatriz

Tropical Depression Two-E disorganized as it nears landfall in Mexico, no longer expected to become Tropical Storm Beatriz

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Tropical Depression Two-E has taken a more northward path than originally expected yesterday, and is now expected to make landfall in the Mexican State of Oaxaca this afternoon or evening. As of 10:00 AM CDT (11:00 AM EDT) Thursday, Tropical Depression Two-E was centered near 15.4°N 97.1°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 6 mph. Maximum 1-minute sustained winds were estimated to be 30 knots (35 mph), with a minimum pressure of 1005 millibars. As I noted yesterday, the large…

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Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

Tropical Depression Two-E forms in East Pacific, forecast to strengthen but models remain divergent

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At 11:00 a.m. Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Two-E south of Mexico in the East Pacific. Maximum winds were estimated to be 25 knots (30 mph), along with a minimum pressure of 1007 millibars. The cyclone was centered near 13.9°N 97.8°W, with the center located near the center of an area of deep convection. Two-E was moving northeastward at about 3 mph.  The NHC expects TD Two-E to slowly strengthen over the next five…

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Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

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Invest 91E has substantially improved in organization since this morning. The system has had persistent deep convection this afternoon, but the convective activity is currently not quite well organized enough for the system to be designated a tropical depression. As of their 5:00 PM PDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center raised the two-day development chances to 70 percent and the five-day probability to 80 percent. 91E is currently a sprawling area of low pressure with a large…

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora made landfall early Tuesday around 7:30 a.m. local time in southeastern Bangladesh. The storm had 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots (75 mph – equivalent to a minimal category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), and 3-minute sustained winds of 60 knots (70 mph), at the time of landfall. The estimated minimum pressure was 978 mbar. Mora was the first Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of 2017 to have 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots or greater, making it the Northern…

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Cyclonic Storm Mora expected to make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, Tropical Depression could form Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week

Cyclonic Storm Mora expected to make landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh, Tropical Depression could form Southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec this week

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Cyclonic Storm Mora has strengthened slightly since yesterday over the Bay of Bengal. As of 12:00 UTC this morning, Mora had 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (65 mph), and 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 45 knots (50 mph). As noted yesterday, moderate wind shear seems to be preventing any rapid intensification of Mora before landfall, as the center of circulation is located along the eastern edge of the deep convection. Mora lacks an eye feature, but has overall become…

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Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

Tropical Cyclone 02B strengthens into Cyclonic Storm Mora in the North Indian Ocean, chance of development increasing in East Pacific

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Tropical Cyclone 02B in the North Indian Ocean has recently been upgraded to Cyclonic Storm Mora, and has continued to become better organized today as it tracks northward through the Bay of Bengal. As of 18:00 UTC this afternoon, 02B had 3-minute maximum sustained winds of 35 knots and 1-minute maximum sustained winds of 40 knots. Just recently, the India Meteorological Department named the system Mora. Mora is the second named storm of the 2017 North Indian Ocean Cyclone Season….

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