Active Tropics Archives - Page 33 of 33

Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

May 27, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Update 5:00 PM EDT: Invest 94B has now developed into Tropical Cyclone 02B. Invest 94B in the Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean is nearly a tropical cyclone. 94B has had persistent deep convection for several hours now, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the circulation of the system was well-defined. The ASCAT pass also showed winds of tropical storm force. 94B is likely to develop into Cyclonic Storm Mora during the next day or two, and could…

Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

May 22, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Sunday’s model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have nearly abandoned the idea of tropical development in the East Pacific or Caribbean. None of the 12z Sunday GFS or ECMWF runs showed development of a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere over the next 10 days. In fact, meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center practically said to disregard Caribbean storms shown on the GFS model at this point in the season, posting on Twitter: “GFS seems like it…

Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

May 21, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The tropics may not be quiet for much longer. Some tropical development is possible next week, but models are not in agreement on which basin will see activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently unfavorable, but both the GFS and CFS models show the MJO becoming more favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic by the week 2 period. The 12z Saturday ECMWF model indicated the possibility of development in the East Pacific about 7-8 days out, while the…

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