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Tropical Depression Seven forms over the central tropical Atlantic, Invest 91L may develop over Northern Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Seven forms over the central tropical Atlantic, Invest 91L may develop over Northern Gulf of Mexico

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The Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone in the deep tropics formed on Tuesday – Tropical Depression Seven. TD Seven is likely to become a tropical storm over the next few days, but faces a very uncertain future. It may threaten the Windward Islands, but its intensity remains highly uncertain. In addition to TD Seven, Invest 91L has a chance to develop over the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Depression Seven was centered…

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Fay becomes the first tropical storm on record to make landfall in New Jersey during July

Fay becomes the first tropical storm on record to make landfall in New Jersey during July

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Tropical Storm Fay made landfall just northeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday afternoon – making it the first Atlantic tropical storm to make landfall in New Jersey during the month of July on record, and the first fully tropical cyclone to make landfall in the state since Irene in 2011. Fay peaked with maximum sustained winds of 50 knots (60 mph) and a minimum pressure of 998 mb at 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday. Since that time, Fay has…

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Tropical Storm Fay forms off the Outer Banks of North Carolina – expected to threaten Northeastern United States as a tropical storm

Tropical Storm Fay forms off the Outer Banks of North Carolina – expected to threaten Northeastern United States as a tropical storm

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The North Atlantic basin’s earliest sixth named storm, Tropical Storm Fay, was named Thursday afternoon. Fay developed from a non-tropical system that had spent the past several days inland over the Southeastern United States. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Fay was centered near 35.5°N 74.9°W, and was moving northward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1005 mb. An Air Force Reconnaissance Aircraft investigated Fay this…

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Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the far northern Atlantic, no threat to land

Tropical Storm Dolly forms over the far northern Atlantic, no threat to land

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Subtropical Depression Four formed along the Gulf Stream on Monday afternoon, and strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolly on Tuesday morning. Dolly is the fourth named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Dolly is no threat to land, and will likely become a remnant low on Wednesday. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dolly was centered near 40.1°N 61.1°W, and was moving east-northeastward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated…

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Tropical Storm Cristobal headed for the U.S. Central Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Cristobal headed for the U.S. Central Gulf Coast

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Tropical Storm Cristobal, which made landfall in Campeche, Mexico on Wednesday morning with 60 mph winds, has reemerged into the Gulf of Mexico and regained tropical storm status. Cristobal could strengthen a bit more prior to making landfall in eastern Louisiana late Sunday, but the storm is not expected to reach hurricane intensity. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Cristobal was centered near 24.7°N 90.2°W, and was moving northward at about 12 mph. Maximum sustained…

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Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

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The Atlantic’s earliest third named storm on record was named Tuesday morning – Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal broke the record previously held by Tropical Storm Colin of 2016, which formed on June 5. Cristobal, which is located over the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche, is likely to make landfall in the Mexican state of Campeche during the next day or so, before moving northward and threatening the United States Gulf Coast on Sunday or Monday. Note that the name Cristobal…

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2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began today, though two tropical storms had already formed – Arthur and Bertha. Arthur strengthened into a moderately strong tropical storm off the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks, while Bertha unexpectedly developed and made landfall in South Carolina. Invest 92L nearly developed into a subtropical cyclone early Saturday morning, but was unable to do so. However, Invest 93L has developed into Tropical Depression Three. TD Three, associated with the remnants of eastern…

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92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

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For the first time in 2020, there is an Invest (area of investigation) over both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Invest 92L over the central Atlantic could become a short-lived, weak subtropical cyclone during the next two days. Invest 91E is likely to develop into a weak tropical cyclone over the extreme eastern Pacific, but brings a heavy rainfall threat to southern Mexico and central America regardless of development. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is…

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Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

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Yet another May tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this time rather unexpectedly. On Wednesday morning, Invest 91L developed a new circulation center underneath the convection mass, and 91L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Bertha. Bertha has already moved inland into South Carolina, and weakening has already begun. Bertha is the Atlantic’s second tropical storm, approximately two months ahead of climatology. Bertha’s formation makes 2020 the first season since 2016 to feature two pre-season tropical cyclones, and the first…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average season predicted

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on Monday, June 1, but the Atlantic has already seen one tropical storm form – Arthur. Arthur formed off the United States East Coast on May 16 and passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on May 18, though overall effects were minimal. Our confidence has increased since late March that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will probably more active than normal, since the equatorial Pacific has cooled to below-normal levels,…

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