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Fabio a Category 2 hurricane, two areas to watch in the Atlantic

Fabio a Category 2 hurricane, two areas to watch in the Atlantic

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Over the open eastern Pacific, Hurricane Fabio is likely peaking in intensity as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. A weakening trend is likely to commence for Fabio on Wednesday. The quiet period over the Atlantic basin is likely to end, with two disturbances with a chance of development over the next five days. The first, an area of disturbed weather near Bermuda, could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics later this week over the subtropical western Atlantic. The second – a…

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Fabio becomes a hurricane, low chance of weak development in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Fabio becomes a hurricane, low chance of weak development in the northern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Fabio over the eastern Pacific has intensified into the third hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season today. An eye-like feature has recently become visible in satellite imagery, and Fabio could still become a major hurricane before reaching cooler waters later this week. Fabio is no threat to land. In the Atlantic, a surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely at this time….

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Emilia almost a remnant low, TS Fabio expected to rapidly intensify

Emilia almost a remnant low, TS Fabio expected to rapidly intensify

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Today is the first day of July, and the eastern Pacific basin remains active. While Tropical Depression Emilia is barely hanging on to tropical depression status, Tropical Storm Fabio, which formed yesterday to the east of Emilia, is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Neither storm poses a threat to land, but Fabio could reach Category 4 status over the open Pacific waters in about two days. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Depression…

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Tropical Storm Emilia forms over the eastern Pacific, 97E expected to develop

Tropical Storm Emilia forms over the eastern Pacific, 97E expected to develop

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Invest 96E over the eastern Pacific has developed into Tropical Storm Emilia – the fifth named storm of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, all of which have formed in June. The average fifth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin does not form, on average, until July 22. While Emilia is not likely to become a hurricane, a tropical wave to the east (designated Invest 97E) is likely to become a stronger storm than Emilia (though the intensity guidance has…

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Daniel a remnant low, Emilia and Fabio likely to form later this week, watching off the East Coast for potential development

Daniel a remnant low, Emilia and Fabio likely to form later this week, watching off the East Coast for potential development

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A tropical cyclone outbreak is likely to begin in the eastern Pacific very soon. Tropical Storm Daniel has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low, but two systems to the east of Daniel are expected to develop into tropical depressions by late this week, but should remain far from any land areas. In the Atlantic, we are continuing to watch the potential for a non-tropical low to gain tropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States later this week….

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Daniel weakening, two more Pacific tropical cyclones likely on the way, potential east coast development late this week?

Daniel weakening, two more Pacific tropical cyclones likely on the way, potential east coast development late this week?

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The 2018 Pacific hurricane season continues to have a hot start. While Tropical Storm Daniel has begun to weaken and should dissipate by Wednesday, two more named storms – Emilia and Fabio – are likely to develop over the eastern Pacific by the end of June. In the Atlantic, there are no disturbances that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring for development, but some global models are hinting at the possibility of development off the United States east coast…

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Tropical Storm Daniel forms over the eastern Pacific, 94E may develop before it merges with another disturbance

Tropical Storm Daniel forms over the eastern Pacific, 94E may develop before it merges with another disturbance

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Saturday evening, Tropical Depression Five-E formed over the eastern Pacific far from land. This morning, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Daniel. Daniel is likely to strengthen a bit more before weakening begins on Monday as the tropical storm reaches cooler water. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Daniel was centered near 16.0N 115.9W, and was moving northward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of…

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Global tropics now quiet, as Carlotta dissipates

Global tropics now quiet, as Carlotta dissipates

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With the dissipation of Tropical Storm Carlotta, the tropics are now quiet with no tropical cyclone development predicted in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific over the next five days. Global models also show no development, either. It is not uncommon to see a lull in the tropics, and it appears as if we are headed for one. I will be back with another post by sometime next week, or sooner if the threat of tropical cyclogenesis returns to the…

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Carlotta meandering near Mexico coast, Gulf disturbance poorly organized

Carlotta meandering near Mexico coast, Gulf disturbance poorly organized

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After a brief period of organization Saturday night in which an eyewall was visible in radar imagery, Tropical Storm Carlotta has weakened significantly this morning. The tiny tropical storm may not even make landfall in Mexico before it degenerates into a remnant low. In the Atlantic, the area of disturbed weather Gulf of Mexico remains poorly organized, and a low-level circulation does not exist. After Carlotta and this Gulf of Mexico disturbance, there should be a lull in activity over…

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TS Carlotta near the coast of Mexico, disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may slightly develop

TS Carlotta near the coast of Mexico, disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may slightly develop

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Tropical Storm Carlotta over the Eastern Pacific has moved slower than anticipated and remains offshore southern Mexico. In the Atlantic, a trough is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Monday as it approaches the Texas coast. Carlotta remains offshore Mexico but likely to move inland tonight or early tomorrow As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near…

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