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Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

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Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized with Invest 90L, currently located over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong wind shear and land interaction are expected to limit organization for the next couple of days, but some development is likely by Saturday when it emerges into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a near zero percent chance of formation within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The…

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Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

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On Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an elongated surface low over the Northwestern Caribbean Invest 90L – the first “Invest” of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC gives 90L a near zero percent chance of development during the next 48 hours, but a 40 percent chance of development within five days. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

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Tropical cyclone development over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly likely late this week or early this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for a weak surface trough currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, giving the disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. Although upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for a strong storm, a sheared…

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Sheared tropical cyclone may form over the Gulf of Mexico – potential track still uncertain

Sheared tropical cyclone may form over the Gulf of Mexico – potential track still uncertain

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A weak, sheared tropical cyclone could still form over the Gulf of Mexico by late this week. The 12z Sunday ECMWF, CMC and ICON models all predicted the development of a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico by next Saturday. The GFS model is much farther east than the other models, predicting an elongated low pressure system will track to the northeast over the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic. Given the high-shear environment, it would not be…

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Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

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The first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has a chance to form late next week – and may lead to a messy Memorial Day weekend for Florida and the Southeastern United States, regardless of development. A Central American Gyre (CAG) and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) are expected to increase convection over the Western Caribbean Sea, leading to the formation of a broad area of low pressure. The low pressure area is expected to be pulled…

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Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

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The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday…

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Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

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A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance…

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Subtropical development possible in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week

Subtropical development possible in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week

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Tropical Depression One-E has degenerated into a remnant low, but there is already  another system in the tropics to watch over the coming days. An upper-level low pressure system is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain some tropical or subtropical characteristics before moving inland into the Northern Gulf Coast late Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned this system in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO). The 12z Saturday…

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TD One-E hanging on, Gulf of Mexico may warrant monitoring early next week

TD One-E hanging on, Gulf of Mexico may warrant monitoring early next week

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The first tropical depression of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Depression One-E, is holding on as a tropical depression despite strong wind shear over the eastern Pacific. One-E, which formed on Thursday afternoon, is likely to degenerate into a remnant low late today or early tomorrow. The remnants of One-E should move slowly north-northwestward before fully dissipating by Sunday. One-E is no threat to any land areas. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Depression One-E was…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Today is March 20 – the vernal (spring) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The start of spring is a reminder that the start of hurricane season will soon be upon us in just over two months. On June 1, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, although there is about a 10 percent chance a storm could form before then. There is considerable uncertainty about how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season, as…

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