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Ophelia expected to strengthen – no imminent threat to land

Ophelia expected to strengthen – no imminent threat to land

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Tropical Storm Ophelia is gradually becoming better organized over the Eastern Subtropical Atlantic, and is likely to become a category 1 hurricane later this week. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Ophelia was centered near 30.7°N 37.6°W, and was moving southeastward at about 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1002 mb. Ophelia has changed little in organization today, but low to moderate wind shear and marginally warm sea surface temperatures should…

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Nate now post-tropical, Tropical Storm Ophelia forms over the eastern subtropical Atlantic

Nate now post-tropical, Tropical Storm Ophelia forms over the eastern subtropical Atlantic

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The Atlantic refuses to enter a lull. On Monday morning, Tropical Depression Nate became a post-tropical remnant low, but a new tropical storm came to life over the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Invest 91L has developed into Tropical Storm Ophelia well southwest of the Azores. Ophelia is the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, and has potential to become the season’s tenth hurricane by late week. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, Tropical Storm Ophelia was centered near 31.4°N 39.9°W,…

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Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

Hurricane Nate makes landfall near the Mississippi River Mouth, 91L likely to develop

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Hurricane Nate – the ninth hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season – made landfall around 7:00 p.m. CDT near the Mouth of the Mississippi River in Southeastern Louisiana. Nate is the third hurricane to make landfall in the United States this season (the fourth if Hurricane Maria’s landfall in Puerto Rico is included). This season has featured the most hurricanes to make landfall in the United States since 2008. Nate has almost certainly peaked in intensity and is…

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Nate expected to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Warnings issued for United States Gulf Coast

Nate expected to strengthen as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Warnings issued for United States Gulf Coast

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Tropical Storm Nate strengthened a little on Friday morning, although the cyclone still lacks an inner core. Nate is expected to keep strengthening, and could become a hurricane as it makes landfall in the United States Gulf Coast. Nate will most likely make landfall in extreme southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Nate was centered near 18.7°N 85.0°W, and was moving north-northwestward at about 21 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with…

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Tropical Depression Sixteen forms over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

Tropical Depression Sixteen forms over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

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A broad area of low pressure consolidated into Tropical Depression Sixteen Wednesday morning over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Nate by Thursday and Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of Central America. The cyclone is then expected to continue moving northward into the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, where strengthening appears likely if the cyclone can stay east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts that the…

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90L likely to develop over the Southwestern Caribbean – possible threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend

90L likely to develop over the Southwestern Caribbean – possible threat to the U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend

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A broad area of low pressure developed over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and has been designated Invest 90L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC gives 90L a 50 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 70 percent chance within five days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to visit 90L on Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 90L was centered near 11.4°N 81.2°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots…

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A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of October tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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The Atlantic gradually begins to slow down in activity in October in a majority of years, but the month has seen its fair share of strong hurricanes. The month of October, on average, sees two named storms form in the Atlantic, with one becoming a hurricane and a major hurricane forming about once every two years. Although October is generally less active than September, six of the last seven Atlantic hurricanes have had their strongest storm peak in intensity in…

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The Atlantic goes quiet as October begins

The Atlantic goes quiet as October begins

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The Atlantic basin now has no active tropical cyclones or disturbances being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This is the first time that has occurred since August 2 – 60 days ago. Even though the peak season has passed, it should be noted that the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. The Atlantic hurricane season does not end until November 30, and an average of 3 named storms form after this date, including 1-2 hurricanes. A major…

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Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

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For the first time since the morning of August 23, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic basin, as Lee and Maria have both transitioned into extratropical lows. There is only one disturbance that has a chance to develop in the short term – Invest 99L, which is located near the coast of Northeastern Florida. 99L has become better organized this evening, with thunderstorm activity increasing to the east of the center. As of 00:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 99L…

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Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

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With Tropical Storms Lee and Maria expected to both turn extratropical on Saturday, the 37-day streak with an Atlantic tropical cyclone active at all times is in jeopardy. There are two new tropical disturbances that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days (including Invest 99L) – but neither is likely to become a hurricane or a major threat. The first one, Invest 99L, is a weak area of low pressure located just inland over Southern Florida….

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