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New African wave could develop, 91E not very likely to develop, Noru a serious threat to southern Japan

New African wave could develop, 91E not very likely to develop, Noru a serious threat to southern Japan

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There are several areas to watch in the Northern Hemisphere tropics today, but the Atlantic and East Pacific both do not have a tropical cyclone active – the first occurrence of such event since July 7. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave has a chance to develop into the Atlantic’s next tropical cyclone, and could end up as a long-tracked storm. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 91E has become slightly better organized today, but is not very likely to develop…

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Tropical Depression Emily moving away from the United States, two other low-chance areas to watch in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression Emily moving away from the United States, two other low-chance areas to watch in the Atlantic

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The Atlantic basin typically sharply increases in activity during the month of August, and the Atlantic remains active with three areas to watch, including Tropical Depression Emily. Emily is losing tropical characteristics and will likely be classified as a post-tropical remnant low at 11:00 p.m. EDT this evening. There are two other areas to watch in the Atlantic basin, a non-tropical area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical wave several hundred miles west-southwest of Cabo…

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Tropical Storm Emily rapidly develops near Tampa Bay, makes landfall in Anna Marie Island

Tropical Storm Emily rapidly develops near Tampa Bay, makes landfall in Anna Marie Island

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Invest 98L rapidly developed a small well-defined circulation as it separated from a cold front early Monday, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Six at 6:00 a.m. EDT this morning. At 8:00 a.m. EDT, Six was upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily based on Doppler radar velocity data. Emily has since made landfall on Anna Maria Island, Florida at 10:45 a.m. EDT this morning. The cyclone was centered near 27.5°N 82.7°W, and was moving eastward at…

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Invest 98L has a low chance to develop over Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Noru rapidly intensifies to Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone of 2017

Invest 98L has a low chance to develop over Eastern Gulf of Mexico, Noru rapidly intensifies to Earth’s strongest tropical cyclone of 2017

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A well-defined area of low pressure located along a dissipating cold front in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico was designated Invest 98L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Sunday morning. Aside from 98L, a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is becoming less likely to develop due to dry air. In the Western Pacific, Typhoon Noru explosively intensified to Earth’s first category 5 tropical cyclone of 2017, but has since weakened slightly. In the Eastern Pacific, Hilary has now…

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Yet another Atlantic tropical wave could develop, but dry air likely to limit development

Yet another Atlantic tropical wave could develop, but dry air likely to limit development

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a tropical wave for development over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) has seen a total of eight disturbances so far monitored by the NHC – significantly more than the only one each in 2014, 2015 and 2016. The NHC gives this tropical wave, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance…

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Hilary and Irwin change little, Typhoon Nesat headed for Taiwan, 97L not expected to develop

Hilary and Irwin change little, Typhoon Nesat headed for Taiwan, 97L not expected to develop

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The global tropics remain active today, but little has changed since yesterday. Hurricane Hilary weakened to a tropical storm last night, and has changed little in strength today. Tropical Storm Irwin has also changed very little in strength. The eastern Atlantic disturbance was briefly designated Invest 97L last night, but was quickly dropped from the Tropical Weather Outlook after it failed to organize. Tropical Storms Hilary and Irwin still expected to merge early next week As of 2:00 p.m. PDT…

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Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

Hilary expected to absorb Irwin, Nesat headed for Taiwan, Atlantic low pressure system may develop

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There are several areas to watch in the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Western Pacific today as the global tropics remain active. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Hilary and Tropical Storm Irwin expected to begin Fujiwhara Interaction this weekend. The global models continue to indicate that the larger and stronger Hilary will be the dominant cyclone. In the Atlantic, an area of low pressure has formed from a tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, and has a chance…

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Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

Tropical wave over Eastern Atlantic may slowly develop

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A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has the potential to develop into the next Atlantic tropical cyclone as it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this wave a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 30 percent chance within five days. The wave is currently accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. In the short term, a suppressed Kelvin Wave is located…

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Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

Twin hurricanes Hilary and Irwin in the Eastern Pacific expected to undergo Fujiwhara interaction, a system worth watching in the Atlantic

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This week could get very interesting in the Eastern Pacific as Hurricanes Hilary and Irwin are expected to interact with each other in a rare phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect. Most global models indicate that Hilary, the stronger and larger storm, will be the dominant cyclone and Irwin is likely going to be absorbed into Hilary’s circulation. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Greg has weakened to a Tropical Depression and is expected to become a remnant low during the next day…

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Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

Noru holding steady in West Pacific, Kulap weakening, Sonca headed for Vietnam

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In the Western Pacific, the tropics remain very active with three active tropical cyclones. Typhoon Noru is changing little in intensity as it spins out in the open Western Pacific.  Tropical Storm Kulap is weakening, and is likely to be absorbed by Noru later this week. Tropical Storm Sonca is moving into the Gulf of Tonkin and is expected to make landfall in central Vietnam. Noru likely to spin over the open Pacific for over a week Typhoon Noru weakened…

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