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Tropical wave in Atlantic could develop, Invest 94E designated in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol forms in West Pacific

Tropical wave in Atlantic could develop, Invest 94E designated in East Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol forms in West Pacific

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The Northern Hemisphere tropics are beginning to get active as they typically do in July. The Atlantic, East Pacific and West Pacific all have areas to watch this week. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave is located southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is being monitored for gradual development. In the East Pacific, there is potential for two tropical cyclones to form with Invest 94E and another tropical wave. In the West Pacific, Tropical Storm Nanmadol has formed in…

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A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of July tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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July is the second month of Atlantic hurricane season. It is often quiet in the Atlantic (some years have no activity at all in the month), but tends to be slightly more active than June. According to NOAA, 118 tropical storms and 55 hurricanes have formed in the month of July since reliable records began in 1851.  25 hurricanes have made landfall in the United States in the month of July, most recently Category 2 Hurricane Arthur in early July…

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A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

A Look at the Atlantic: June 30, 2017

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It is Friday, and as always, that means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic! The Atlantic basin remains mostly quiet for the moment, with no active tropical cyclones or investigative areas. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is not anticipating any development over the next five days. However, several recent runs of the GFS model and its ensembles have been indicating the possibility of development of a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic during the next…

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The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): An Explanation and Analysis of its Current State

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The amount of Atlantic hurricane activity in a season is most directly driven by two factors: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These two oscillations are the primary indices used in forecasting activity for the Atlantic hurricane season. The AMO is a pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Atlantic Ocean, and is strongly correlated with the activity of Atlantic hurricane seasons. While the ENSO changes nearly every year, the AMO is…

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Dora weakens to a remnant low, development in both Atlantic and East Pacific unlikely in near future

Dora weakens to a remnant low, development in both Atlantic and East Pacific unlikely in near future

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Farewell, Dora The life of Hurricane Dora – the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northern Hemisphere so far in 2017 by wind speed – came to an end this morning. Dora became devoid of deep convection last night, and new convection did not redevelop. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) declared Dora a remnant low at 9:00 a.m. MDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) and terminated advisories. Dora is now just a swirl of low-level clouds, but a vigorous circulation…

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Dora weakens to a tropical storm, another East Pacific system, Chance of Atlantic MDR development decreasing

Dora weakens to a tropical storm, another East Pacific system, Chance of Atlantic MDR development decreasing

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Tropical Storm Dora is feeling the effects of cooler sea surface temperatures, and has begun to weaken. Dora fell below hurricane strength this afternoon as deep convection has continued to decrease. Dora should continue to lose convection and become a remnant low by Thursday, if not sooner. Meanwhile, two other systems (one in the Atlantic and one in the East Pacific) both have a low chance of development over the next several days. Dora meeting its demise This morning, Dora…

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Dora peaks as a strong category 1 hurricane, two other systems to watch over coming days

Dora peaks as a strong category 1 hurricane, two other systems to watch over coming days

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Tropical Storm Dora rapidly intensified last night to become the first hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Dora strengthened to a high-end category 1 hurricane this afternoon, but cooling sea surface temperatures are likely to induce a weakening trend beginning tonight. Dora should weaken to a remnant low by Thursday as it continues moving northwestward in the Eastern Pacific. Forecast for Dora As of 3:00 p.m. MDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Dora was centered in the Eastern Pacific near 17.8°N…

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Tropical Storm Dora forms over the East Pacific, expected to become first hurricane of season

Tropical Storm Dora forms over the East Pacific, expected to become first hurricane of season

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Early Sunday, Tropical Depression Four-E strengthened into Tropical Storm Dora, becoming the fourth named storm of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season. Dora has continued to strengthen this morning, although its circulation center has become partially exposed to the north of the main convective mass. Dora is likely to strengthen to a minimal hurricane by Tuesday before weakening commences as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT  (11:00 a.m. EDT), Dora was centered near 15.0°N 101.8°W and was…

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Invest 93E in Eastern Pacific very close to Tropical Depression Status, likely to become Tropical Storm Dora

Invest 93E in Eastern Pacific very close to Tropical Depression Status, likely to become Tropical Storm Dora

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Invest 93E in the Eastern Pacific has become better organized today, and is very close to becoming a tropical depression. 93E has a very large convective canopy, but lacks a central dense overcast.  This could be the reason why it has not yet been classified as a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center gives 93E a 90 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. They also said that advisories could be initiated tonight if the organization…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 23, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 23, 2017

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For the first time in two weeks, it is Friday and the Atlantic has quieted down. That means it is time to take a look at the Atlantic. The Atlantic has quieted down after Tropical Storms Bret and Cindy. Cindy has transitioned into a post-tropical low this evening. The Atlantic is soon going to enter its normal “summer quiescence” with no development expected until at least mid-July. Due to a suppressed MJO phase, Atlantic activity during early July is not…

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