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A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

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It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in…

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NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

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As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45%…

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My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

My 2017 East Pacific hurricane season forecast

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It is not often you see East Pacific hurricane season forecasts, so I decided to make my own. NOAA is likely going to release their East Pacific hurricane season forecast later today, but most other agencies do not release seasonal forecasts for the East Pacific basin. Last season, the East Pacific basin saw an above-average season with 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, despite a weak La Niña – which typically suppresses the East Pacific basin. The…

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2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

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Tomorrow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their official 2017 forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. This forecast is usually the most anticipated one of the year. Last year, NOAA predicted in late May that the Atlantic would see 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast verified quite well at the upper end of the range, with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season seeing 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes…

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Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

Accumulated Cyclone Energy: What it is, How it is Calculated, and How it Determines Seasonal Activity

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As we approach the start of Atlantic hurricane season, a term you may see pop up now and then is “Accumulated Cyclone Energy.” Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a measurement of the activity of a hurricane season, based on storm intensity and duration. It is calculated for each individual storm by taking the sum of the storm’s intensity, in knots, squared, at six-hour intervals, divided by 10000. For instance, if a storm had 40-knot winds for one advisory, the ACE…

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Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

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Sunday’s model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have nearly abandoned the idea of tropical development in the East Pacific or Caribbean. None of the 12z Sunday GFS or ECMWF runs showed development of a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere over the next 10 days. In fact, meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center practically said to disregard Caribbean storms shown on the GFS model at this point in the season, posting on Twitter: “GFS seems like it…

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Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

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The tropics may not be quiet for much longer. Some tropical development is possible next week, but models are not in agreement on which basin will see activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently unfavorable, but both the GFS and CFS models show the MJO becoming more favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic by the week 2 period. The 12z Saturday ECMWF model indicated the possibility of development in the East Pacific about 7-8 days out, while the…

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A history of May tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

A history of May tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

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While not officially part of Atlantic hurricane season, May has seen plenty of tropical cyclones over the years. According to NOAA, the month of May has seen a total of 22 tropical storms and four hurricanes since reliable records began in 1851, making it the most active month outside of the official seasonal bounds of June 1 to November 30. Based on these data, on average, an Atlantic tropical cyclone forms in May about once every ten years. This total…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 19, 2017

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Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are slowly warming up, while wind shear is slowly decreasing. The Atlantic basin is not quite ready for tropical cyclones yet, but should be fairly soon. Each Friday when a storm is not active, I will do a detailed analysis of the Atlantic, including sea surface temperatures and anomalies, wind shear, and convective activity. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES  Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic continue to slowly warm up, with the 26°C isotherm now stretching…

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My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

My visit to the NHC Hurricane Awareness Tour

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On Wednesday, May 10, I was fortunate enough to get a chance to visit the National Hurricane Center’s Hurricane Awareness Tour at Raleigh-Durham International Airport. I had also attended this event several years ago, but I do not remember much about it. However, unlike last time, this time I was able to see the WC-130J AF309 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Last season I began to closely monitor the Air Force reconnaissance flights to get a better idea of the rate of…

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