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Tropical Storm Arlene forms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely to be short-lived

Tropical Storm Arlene forms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely to be short-lived

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An area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico developed into Tropical Depression Two yesterday afternoon, and this afternoon it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene – the first named storm of the season. It should be noted, however, that Arlene is technically not the first sub(tropical) cyclone of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Arlene was centered near 26.7°N 86.2°W, and was moving…

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2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Invest 91L could develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Invest 91L could develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

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Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on time, there is a system with a serious chance of tropical development. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be a very unique one, with near-record warmth over the tropical Atlantic in spite of a a developing El Niño. I will provide more thoughts on the season as a whole in my forecast update next Tuesday. Among expert forecasters, there has been…

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Active in the tropics: Danielle resilient in the northern Atlantic, Earl likely to pass east of Bermuda, Kay threatens Baja California

Active in the tropics: Danielle resilient in the northern Atlantic, Earl likely to pass east of Bermuda, Kay threatens Baja California

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The peak of the hurricane season is near, and the Atlantic and eastern Pacific both have hurricanes active (the Atlantic has two). In the Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle is likely to become extratropical tomorrow, while Hurricane Earl is expected to intensify into the first major hurricane of the season east of Bermuda. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Kay is likely to brush the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and could bring tropical storm conditions as far north as the…

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Tropical Storm Alex forms over the western Atlantic, likely to be relatively short-lived

Tropical Storm Alex forms over the western Atlantic, likely to be relatively short-lived

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After bringing tropical storm conditions to southern Florida as a disturbance, Potential Tropical Cyclone One has now acquired a sufficiently well-defined center of circulation to be designated Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Alex is likely to move quickly east-northeastward over the next few days, passing north of Bermuda and becoming extratropical on Tuesday, if not sooner. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Alex was centered near 30.4°N 73.9°W, and was…

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to become a tropical storm Friday, bring tropical storm conditions to southern Florida

Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to become a tropical storm Friday, bring tropical storm conditions to southern Florida

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC 1), located near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. PTC 1 is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday and make landfall over the southwestern Florida peninsula on Saturday afternoon. After that, PTC 1 is expected to accelerate northeastward with some slight additional intensification possible. Tropical Storm Watches have already been issued for western Cuba, the southern Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas. The…

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2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins with two systems to watch – tropical system likely to affect western Florida this weekend

2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins with two systems to watch – tropical system likely to affect western Florida this weekend

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Today is June 1, the official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Thus far, no tropical or subtropical cyclones have developed, which marks the first time since 2014 in which a pre-season tropical cyclone did not develop in the Atlantic basin. Regardless, the Atlantic is already showing signs of activity, and the Atlantic’s first named storm (Alex) will likely form late this week. This season will use List 2 of the six naming lists used to name tropical storms…

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Agatha rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches southern Mexico

Agatha rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane as it approaches southern Mexico

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Tropical Storm Agatha over the eastern Pacific intensified into a hurricane on Sunday morning, and has now rapidly intensified into a high-end Category 2 hurricane as it turns northeastward towards landfall in southern Mexico. Agatha is expected to make landfall tomorrow evening, likely as a major hurricane. Agatha is the first eastern Pacific hurricane to form in May since Andres in 2015. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Hurricane Agatha was centered near 14.1°N 98.7°W, and was moving…

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TS Agatha forms over the eastern Pacific, expected to make landfall in southern Mexico as a hurricane

TS Agatha forms over the eastern Pacific, expected to make landfall in southern Mexico as a hurricane

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The first named storm of the 2022 Pacific hurricane season – Agatha – developed Saturday morning southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Agatha is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall in western Oaxaca Monday evening. Agatha’s remnants could emerge into the Bay of Campeche and will need to be monitored for possible redevelopment in the Gulf of Mexico late next week. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Agatha was centered near 13.2°N 98.4°W,…

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Above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ends on a quiet note

Above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season ends on a quiet note

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The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends today. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season produced 21 named storms (one of which was subtropical), 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy total of 145.1. This marked the Atlantic’s sixth-straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, and the third-most active season on record in terms of named storms (behind 2020 and 2005). The average number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes from 1991-2020 are 14, 7, and 3 respectively. The…

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A historically quiet October in the Atlantic, but 94L could develop

A historically quiet October in the Atlantic, but 94L could develop

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After having 20 named storms, the second-most on record through that date, before the start of October, it has been a historically quiet month of October in the Atlantic basin. Thus far, no tropical cyclones have formed in the month of October in the North Atlantic. The last year to have no tropical cyclones to form during the month of October in the Atlantic was 2015, which was a very strong El Niño year. What makes this inactivity even more…

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