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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five likely to become tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five likely to become tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles

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A vigorous tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure, located over the central tropical Atlantic, has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Five by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC initiates Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories to disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but both 1) have a high chance of development within 48 hours and 2) tropical storm watches or warnings are required for an area within 48 hours. Five is likely to become the…

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June-tember: Monitoring Invests 95L and 97L over the tropical Atlantic

June-tember: Monitoring Invests 95L and 97L over the tropical Atlantic

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It looks much more like September than late June over the deep tropical Atlantic, with two tropical waves currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for development. Invest 95L, located east of the Lesser Antilles, has not become much better organized, and its development chances appear to be decreasing. However, newly-designated Invest 97L over the southeastern tropical Atlantic is looking increasingly likely to be the Atlantic’s first deep tropics cyclone of 2021. Should either or both of 95L or…

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Tropical Storm Danny forms off the coast of South Carolina, expected to make landfall this evening

Tropical Storm Danny forms off the coast of South Carolina, expected to make landfall this evening

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The Atlantic’s fourth named storm – Tropical Storm Danny – formed Monday afternoon, over the western Atlantic off the South Carolina coast. Danny’s formation makes it the fourth named storm of the season, and the first time since 1968 in which three named storms formed during June. Danny’s formation also marks the fourth time since 2012 in which the “D” named storm formed in June, which had not happened prior to 2012. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm…

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TS Claudette moving away from the United States east coast, another disturbance to watch in the tropical Atlantic

TS Claudette moving away from the United States east coast, another disturbance to watch in the tropical Atlantic

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The Atlantic basin remains fairly active for the month of June, with Claudette regaining tropical storm status off the United States east coast as it accelerates northeastward. In the central tropical Atlantic, there is a tropical wave with a low chance of development over the next two days, but only has a narrow window for potential development. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Claudette was centered near 37.5°N 72.1°W, and was moving east-northeastward at about 29 mph. Maximum…

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TS Claudette forms inland over Louisiana

TS Claudette forms inland over Louisiana

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A disturbance that had been monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for several days developed into Tropical Storm Claudette early Saturday morning, after moving inland into Louisiana. It is somewhat unusual to see tropical cyclones develop inland, but Claudette’s impacts would have not been much different regardless of its status. Claudette has already weakened from its peak intensity, and is likely going to continue to weaken for the next day or so as it moves northeastward. The main threat…

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TS Bill losing tropical characteristics, tropical depression likely to form over western Gulf late this week

TS Bill losing tropical characteristics, tropical depression likely to form over western Gulf late this week

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The second named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Bill, is beginning to lose tropical characteristics as it moves northeastward away from the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. In addition, Invest 92L over the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a tropical depression by late this week over the western Gulf of Mexico as it begins to lift northward. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Bill was centered near 40.5°N 62.0°W, and was…

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TD Two rapidly forms off the coast of North Carolina, watching Invest 92L and another tropical wave

TD Two rapidly forms off the coast of North Carolina, watching Invest 92L and another tropical wave

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Somewhat unexpectedly, a non-tropical area of low pressure off the United States east coast rapidly developed into Tropical Depression Two – the second tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. In addition to TD Two, two other systems are currently being monitored in the Atlantic for tropical development: Invest 92L over the Bay of Campeche, and an early-season tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Carlos remains active over the eastern Pacific, but poses no threat…

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Tropical Depression Three-E forms over the open eastern Pacific, Invest 92L in SW Gulf may develop over the next several days

Tropical Depression Three-E forms over the open eastern Pacific, Invest 92L in SW Gulf may develop over the next several days

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The third tropical depression of the 2021 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Depression Three-E, developed Saturday afternoon over the open eastern Pacific far from any land areas, and is likely to become a moderate to strong tropical storm without affecting any land. In the Atlantic, Invest 92L has been designated over the Bay of Campeche, which has a medium chance to develop over the next five days. A long-tracked disturbance (Invest 92E) over the eastern Pacific that was given a 90%…

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2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; TS Blanca likely to weaken soon

2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; TS Blanca likely to weaken soon

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Today is June 1, the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season. As has been the case every year since 2015, a pre-season named storm has already developed – Tropical Storm Ana, which developed northeast of Bermuda in late May and had very minimal impact. While there are currently no active tropical cyclones or disturbances in the Atlantic, Tropical Storm Blanca is active over the eastern Pacific, but poses no threat to land and is likely to weaken soon….

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Above-normal season expected, but less active than 2020

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Above-normal season expected, but less active than 2020

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The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins a week from today, June 1. However, we have already seen one named storm form: Tropical Storm Ana, which formed northeast of Bermuda on Saturday and became a remnant low late Sunday night. Ana’s formation marked the seventh straight year with a pre-season named storm in the Atlantic basin. While tropical cyclogenesis appears unlikely for at least the next 7-10 days in the Atlantic basin, Cyclonic Fury is forecasting yet another above-average Atlantic…

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