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Category: Seasonal Forecasts

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Active season likely, but still early

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Active season likely, but still early

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, just over two months from today. The Atlantic has not been following these seasonal boundaries lately, though, with the past five years all having at least one named storm form prior to June 1 (most of these storms have been weak, however). Forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity in March is challenging because of uncertainties with the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern as well as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, the…

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Cyclonic Fury’s July 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly above average activity anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s July 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly above average activity anticipated

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The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is quickly approaching. So far, the Atlantic basin has seen three tropical depressions and two named storms, including one minimal hurricane (Barry). Barry was the first July hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Arthur in 2014. Atlantic basin activity has been close to normal, though Barry reached hurricane strength about three weeks prior to the average date of the first hurricane formation in the Atlantic. Unlike the past two seasons,…

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Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

Cyclonic Fury’s 2019 Pacific hurricane season forecast: Potentially well above-average activity expected

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Today is May 15, the official start of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. No tropical cyclones have developed yet in this basin in 2019; 2017 featured the pre-season Tropical Storm Adrian and 2018 featured the pre-season Tropical Depression One-E. The Eastern and Central Pacific is coming off a record-breaking 2018 season which featured 23 named storms, 13 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, 3 Category 5 hurricanes, and a record-high 318 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. With a weak El Nino event…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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In just over two months, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin June 1. It should be noted, however, that the last four Atlantic hurricane seasons have all featured at least one named storm form before this date! Like any year at this time, there remains considerable uncertainty about how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as how the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern will evolve between now and the peak of hurricane season. Currently weak…

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Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

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Cyclonic Fury has released its July 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast update, and we now anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will see activity slightly below the long-term average. Our final forecast anticipates a total of 10-13 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, along with 5-7 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 80 (+/- 20) units. This forecast includes the three systems that have already formed in the Atlantic…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May forecast update: Much less active season than last year predicted

Cyclonic Fury’s May forecast update: Much less active season than last year predicted

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Cyclonic Fury has released our May 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast update. We have lowered our numbers slightly since the March forecast. Cyclonic Fury now anticipates 10-14 named storms to form during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, along with 4-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. This updated outlook calls for a 75% probability of near or below average activity. This forecast reduction is based on two primary factors: cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a moderate chance for a…

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CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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Two of the most well known hurricane season forecast groups both released their preliminary April outlooks for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, as well as Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea, released outlooks with very different predictions.  However, both of these groups believe that the upcoming hurricane season, which officially begins in only eight weeks, will be less…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Today is March 20 – the vernal (spring) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The start of spring is a reminder that the start of hurricane season will soon be upon us in just over two months. On June 1, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, although there is about a 10 percent chance a storm could form before then. There is considerable uncertainty about how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season, as…

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Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

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It may be December and the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is over five months away, but it is not too early to begin to speculate on what the next hurricane season will be like. The Atlantic basin featured hyperactive activity in 2017, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, along with a very high Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 226 units. The Atlantic’s 2017 season came after an also active but less intense 2016 season, which…

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June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

June CPC Update: El Niño chances continue to diminish for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Thursday morning, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their monthly discussion on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is typically released on the second Thursday of each month. Their update lowered the chances of El Niño for fall 2017, with chances being lowered from about 45% to 35-40%. No El Niño Watch was issued, meaning the development of El Niño is not imminent. This continues the trend of the past few ENSO discussions: lowering chances of El Niño and increasing chances of ENSO-neutral…

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