CYCLONIC FURY

TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

May 18, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The center of Tropical Storm Arthur passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday morning, though the center did not make landfall. After Arthur’s convective structure degraded on Sunday, deep convection redeveloped on Monday morning, and Arthur strengthened. Arthur produced sustained tropical storm force winds across portions of the Outer Banks this morning and afternoon. All Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued at the 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday advisory. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Arthur…

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TS Arthur likely to bring rainfall to eastern North Carolina on Monday

May 17, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Saturday night, but is struggling with marginal sea surface temperatures and dry air. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered near 32.4°N 76.9°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. The center of Arthur was approximately 210 miles south-southwest of Hatteras, North Carolina. Arthur’s…

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Tropical Depression One Forms East Of Florida, May Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to NC Outer Banks

May 16, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The North Atlantic’s first tropical depression of 2020 developed Saturday evening – Tropical Depression One. The formation of TD One makes 2020 the sixth consecutive year in which the Atlantic basin has had tropical or subtropical cyclone activity prior to the official start of the season (June 1). 2020 is also the third straight year with a May subtropical or tropical cyclone, and five of the last six years have had May activity in the Atlantic basin. TD One is…

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Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

May 14, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

It appears very likely that the Atlantic’s streak of pre-season tropical activity, which began in 2015, will continue for a sixth year. A trough of low pressure – now designated Invest 90L – is likely to organize into 2020’s first tropical or subtropical cyclone, possibly as soon as Friday evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been tentatively scheduled to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon. As of 2:40 p.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 90L…

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2020 Atlantic hurricane season names

May 13, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

With the start of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season quickly approaching and the first named storm – Arthur – likely this weekend, I figured it would be a good time to review the names being used for this season. Arthur’s previous incarnation in 2014 became the earliest hurricane to make landfall in North Carolina, but since the name was not retired, it is going to be used again this year. Several other names that have been used several times are…

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Pre-season subtropical development possible this weekend north of the Bahamas

May 12, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

An area of low pressure is expected to develop north of the Bahamas on Saturday. This area of low pressure has a medium chance to become the Atlantic’s first subtropical or tropical cyclone of 2020. Although the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin until June 1, the month of May has seen a total of 9 subtropical or tropical cyclones form since 2007. These cyclones include Subtropical Storm Andrea (2007), Tropical Storm Arthur (2008), Tropical Depression One (2009), Tropical…

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Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

April 25, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

For the first time in recorded history, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin during the month of April. Tropical Depression One-E – the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific east of 140°W – developed Saturday morning, and has a brief window to intensify into a tropical storm Saturday night before conditions become unfavorable. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT/2:00 p.m. PDT Saturday, Tropical Depression One-E was centered near 14.5°N 116.9°W, and was moving northwestward…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Active season likely, but still early

March 31, 2020 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, just over two months from today. The Atlantic has not been following these seasonal boundaries lately, though, with the past five years all having at least one named storm form prior to June 1 (most of these storms have been weak, however). Forecasting Atlantic hurricane activity in March is challenging because of uncertainties with the Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly pattern as well as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Currently, the…

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Category 2 Hurricane Jerry expected to pass north of the Leeward Islands

September 19, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Jerry quickly intensified on Thursday to become a Category 2 hurricane over the western tropical Atlantic. Jerry is the tenth named storm and fourth hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Hurricane Jerry was centered near 18.0°N 57.2°W. Maximum sustained winds were 90 knots (105 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 976 mb. Some slight additional intensification is possible overnight, but Jerry is expected to encounter increasing northwesterly shear tomorrow. Based…

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Hurricane Dorian very close to the coast of South Carolina

September 5, 2019 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Dorian remains a powerful hurricane and is currently just offshore South Carolina. Dorian could make landfall somewhere in eastern North Carolina on Thursday night, but the model guidance is still split on whether or not a landfall will occur. Dorian is already bringing hurricane conditions and storm surge to the coastal Carolinas. Hurricane Warnings and Storm Surge Warnings remain effect for most of the region, with Tropical Storm Warnings extending into southeastern Virginia and even the coast of Massachusetts….

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