TS Erick forms over the eastern Pacific, Hawaii threat uncertain

TS Erick forms over the eastern Pacific, Hawaii threat uncertain

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Update 2:15 p.m. PDT: TD Six-E has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erick by the NHC. Tropical Depression Six-E over the eastern Pacific is close to intensifying into a tropical storm. As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Six-E was centered near 11.6°N 125.3°W, and was moving westward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. A recently-arrived ASCAT-C pass suggests Six-E is close to…

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TD Three forms over the Bahamas, significant intensification not expected, TD Five-E no threat

TD Three forms over the Bahamas, significant intensification not expected, TD Five-E no threat

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The North Atlantic’s third tropical depression developed Monday afternoon, but is not expected to become a tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Three at 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday. TD Three is likely to be short-lived, as it is expected to be absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Depression Three was centered near 25.6°N 78.6°W, and was moving northwestward at about 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25…

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Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

Barry makes landfall in central Louisiana as a hurricane, TD Four-E expected to dissipate

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Hurricane Barry made landfall in central Louisiana today, near the Marsh Island area. The estimated intensity was 65 knots (70 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 993 mb. However, the exact time and location of landfall has not yet been officially determined due to Barry’s disorganized structure. Barry has since weakened to a tropical storm, and should continue to weaken over the next few days. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Barry was centered near…

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, a hurricane threat to the northern Gulf Coast

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, a hurricane threat to the northern Gulf Coast

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Wednesday morning. Although Two is not yet a tropical cyclone, it has the potential to bring tropical storm conditions to southeastern Louisiana within 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron, Louisiana. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Mouth…

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Invest 92L expected to develop by Thursday, may pose wind and surge risk for Louisiana

Invest 92L expected to develop by Thursday, may pose wind and surge risk for Louisiana

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Invest 92L has emerged over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and is likely to slowly organize into a tropical cyclone over the next day or two. Although the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, 92L should gradually become better organized over the next few days. Global models have come into better agreement, with most of the recent models predicting that 92L will be a strong tropical storm or low-end hurricane making landfall somewhere in Louisiana on Saturday. However,…

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Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

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It is looking increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone will form over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. A broad trough of low pressure, currently centered over central Georgia, is expected to drift southwestward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. At that time, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop by Friday. This system has been designated Invest 92L while still over land, which is not…

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Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

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A trough of low pressure located over northern Georgia is expected to drift southward into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a surface low pressure area could lead to the development of the North Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone of 2019. If a tropical cyclone does develop, it remains uncertain which path it will take, with the GFS and CMC models favoring more of an eastward solution and the ECMWF model favoring more of a westward solution. The…

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Barbara post-tropical, TS Cosme forms, Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched next week

Barbara post-tropical, TS Cosme forms, Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched next week

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Hurricane Barbara has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, but a new tropical storm has formed in the eastern Pacific – Cosme. Cosme is no threat to land, and appears to have a short life ahead of it with no significant strengthening. However, in the Atlantic, a trough currently inland over the United States could eventually spawn a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico next week, which needs to be watched for possible tropical development. As of 8:00 a.m….

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Barbara rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane, but expected to weaken soon

Barbara rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane, but expected to weaken soon

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Hurricane Barbara rapidly intensified into the first major hurricane of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season Tuesday morning by reaching Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Barbara reached Category 4 intensity less than 48 hours after being named on Sunday. Some slight intensification is possible tonight, but a gradual weakening trend is likely to begin Wednesday as Barbara moves toward cooler waters and increasing wind shear. Barbara is no imminent threat to land. As of 11:00 a.m. HST (5:00…

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Tropical Storm Barbara forms over the eastern Pacific, likely to become a long-lived hurricane

Tropical Storm Barbara forms over the eastern Pacific, likely to become a long-lived hurricane

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Barbara, the second named storm of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, formed on Sunday morning, and is likely to become the second hurricane and possibly the first major hurricane of the season. It is possible that Barbara could enter the Central Pacific basin in about a week, but it remains too soon to tell if it will affect the Hawaiian Islands. Barbara formed about five days later than the climatological average for the second named storm in the eastern Pacific…

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