TD One-E forms over the eastern Pacific, no threat to land

TD One-E forms over the eastern Pacific, no threat to land

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After a 232-day tropical cyclone drought, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. A small area of low pressure developed into Tropical Depression One-E today, making it the latest-forming first tropical depression in the basin since reliable records began in 1971. One-E is likely to become a tropical storm, but is likely to be short-lived as it encounters unfavorable conditions later this week. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Depression One-E was centered near…

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91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

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Due to its large size and increasing wind shear, Invest 91L has struggled to develop, and it is likely out of time to develop into a tropical cyclone. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91L was centered near  23.8°N 97.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Although thunderstorm activity has increased today, the disturbance remains disorganized and continues to lack a well-defined circulation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 91L…

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Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

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Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche has not changed much in organization since yesterday. The associated thunderstorm activity remains somewhat disorganized, and the low-level circulation is not yet well defined enough to be classified as a tropical depression. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit 91L this afternoon, but the flight was canceled as 91L remains poorly organized. As of 18:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 91L was centered near 19.7°N 94.5°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained…

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Hurricane season Day 1: Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche gradually organizing

Hurricane season Day 1: Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche gradually organizing

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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season officially starts today, and right on schedule, we are monitoring an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche for tropical development. It has been designated Invest 91L, and has a medium chance of development within the next 48 hours. If 91L becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Barry. The average second named storm in the Atlantic basin does not form until August 1, so if 91L develops, it will be well…

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Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

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Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on schedule, there is a system in the Atlantic basin to watch already. One subtropical storm has already developed in the Atlantic in 2019 (Andrea, earlier this month). A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula has a small chance to develop into the Atlantic’s second named storm of 2019 if it has enough time over water. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system…

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Invest 91E may develop over the far eastern Pacific if it remains offshore

Invest 91E may develop over the far eastern Pacific if it remains offshore

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A broad area of low pressure, re-designated Invest 91E, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the Nicaragua coast. This system should remain nearly stationary and perhaps meander slightly over the next several days, and could develop into a tropical cyclone if it does not move inland into Central America. As of 18:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 91E was located near 11.8°N 87.3°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1006 mb. Invest…

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Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

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Short-lived Subtropical Storm Andrea weakened into a Subtropical Depression on Tuesday morning, and as of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued the last advisory on Andrea, which has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. Andrea has lacked persistent deep convection since early this morning, so it is no longer a subtropical cyclone. Also, we are watching a disturbance in the eastern Pacific once again for possible gradual development. Short-lived Andrea now a post-tropical remnant low As…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: numbers increased due to struggling El Niño

Cyclonic Fury’s May 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: numbers increased due to struggling El Niño

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The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin on June 1. So far, one named storm has formed in the North Atlantic basin in 2019 – Andrea. Now that it is May, the forecast has become clearer, and Cyclonic Fury now expects a more active season than our March forecast. This is primarily because El Niño has not strengthened over the last two months, and climate models have backed off their ENSO forecast. In addition, the equatorial Pacific subsurface has…

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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

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The Atlantic’s first named storm of 2019 – Subtropical Storm Andrea – developed Monday evening southwest of Bermuda. Andrea marks the fifth straight year in which the Atlantic basin has had a named storm develop before the official start of the season (June 1). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance (90L) this afternoon, and found a well-defined circulation. As of 6:30 p.m. EDT Monday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 28.8°N 68.7°W, and was moving northward at…

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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

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The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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