Beryl opens up into a wave, Chris expected to become a hurricane along the Gulf Stream

Beryl opens up into a wave, Chris expected to become a hurricane along the Gulf Stream

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The unusually active July in the Atlantic basin continues. While Tropical Storm Beryl has degenerated into a tropical wave, it could regenerate east of the Bahamas by late next week. In addition to Beryl is recently named Tropical Storm Chris, which should intensify into a hurricane by Tuesday as it moves little, and then eventually northeastward along the Gulf Stream. If Chris intensifies into a hurricane as expected, the Atlantic will have two hurricanes form in the month of July…

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Beryl falls apart, Tropical Depression Three expected to remain offshore and strengthen

Beryl falls apart, Tropical Depression Three expected to remain offshore and strengthen

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For the first time since 2011, the Atlantic basin has two tropical cyclones active at once in the month of July. Tiny Beryl, which was a hurricane yesterday, has quickly weakened today, and is now a poorly organized tropical storm with little deep convection remaining. This is good news for the Lesser Antilles, as Beryl is likely to remain weak when it passes the island instead of the potential hurricane predicted yesterday. In the western Atlantic, Tropical Depression Three is…

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Tiny Beryl rapidly intensifies into a hurricane, likely to impact the Leeward Islands, 96L likely to develop off the U.S. East Coast

Tiny Beryl rapidly intensifies into a hurricane, likely to impact the Leeward Islands, 96L likely to develop off the U.S. East Coast

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With the eastern Pacific quieting down, the Atlantic basin has become active, with Tropical Depression Two forming over the tropical Atlantic yesterday. The depression rapidly intensified into a tropical storm quickly after formation, and is now a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Beryl is a tiny hurricane over the tropical Atlantic, and is likely to impact the Lesser Antilles as at least a tropical storm on Sunday night. In addition to Beryl, Invest 96L over…

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Tropical Depression Two forms over the deep tropical Atlantic, Fabio now a tropical storm over the eastern Pacific

Tropical Depression Two forms over the deep tropical Atlantic, Fabio now a tropical storm over the eastern Pacific

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The tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic has acquired a small, closed circulation, and has maintained persistent deep convection for some time now. As a result, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued advisories on Tropical Depression Two. The depression may strengthen into Tropical Storm Beryl during the next day or two before encountering strong wind shear as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. In the eastern Pacific, Fabio is quickly weakening and is now a tropical storm. Tropical Depression Two…

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Fabio a Category 2 hurricane, two areas to watch in the Atlantic

Fabio a Category 2 hurricane, two areas to watch in the Atlantic

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Over the open eastern Pacific, Hurricane Fabio is likely peaking in intensity as a high-end Category 2 hurricane. A weakening trend is likely to commence for Fabio on Wednesday. The quiet period over the Atlantic basin is likely to end, with two disturbances with a chance of development over the next five days. The first, an area of disturbed weather near Bermuda, could gradually acquire some tropical characteristics later this week over the subtropical western Atlantic. The second – a…

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Fabio becomes a hurricane, low chance of weak development in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Fabio becomes a hurricane, low chance of weak development in the northern Gulf of Mexico

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Tropical Storm Fabio over the eastern Pacific has intensified into the third hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season today. An eye-like feature has recently become visible in satellite imagery, and Fabio could still become a major hurricane before reaching cooler waters later this week. Fabio is no threat to land. In the Atlantic, a surface trough is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Gulf of Mexico, but development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely at this time….

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Emilia almost a remnant low, TS Fabio expected to rapidly intensify

Emilia almost a remnant low, TS Fabio expected to rapidly intensify

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Today is the first day of July, and the eastern Pacific basin remains active. While Tropical Depression Emilia is barely hanging on to tropical depression status, Tropical Storm Fabio, which formed yesterday to the east of Emilia, is expected to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane. Neither storm poses a threat to land, but Fabio could reach Category 4 status over the open Pacific waters in about two days. As of 2:00 p.m. PDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Tropical Depression…

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Tropical Storm Emilia forms over the eastern Pacific, 97E expected to develop

Tropical Storm Emilia forms over the eastern Pacific, 97E expected to develop

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Invest 96E over the eastern Pacific has developed into Tropical Storm Emilia – the fifth named storm of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, all of which have formed in June. The average fifth named storm in the eastern Pacific basin does not form, on average, until July 22. While Emilia is not likely to become a hurricane, a tropical wave to the east (designated Invest 97E) is likely to become a stronger storm than Emilia (though the intensity guidance has…

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Daniel a remnant low, Emilia and Fabio likely to form later this week, watching off the East Coast for potential development

Daniel a remnant low, Emilia and Fabio likely to form later this week, watching off the East Coast for potential development

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A tropical cyclone outbreak is likely to begin in the eastern Pacific very soon. Tropical Storm Daniel has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low, but two systems to the east of Daniel are expected to develop into tropical depressions by late this week, but should remain far from any land areas. In the Atlantic, we are continuing to watch the potential for a non-tropical low to gain tropical characteristics off the east coast of the United States later this week….

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Daniel weakening, two more Pacific tropical cyclones likely on the way, potential east coast development late this week?

Daniel weakening, two more Pacific tropical cyclones likely on the way, potential east coast development late this week?

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The 2018 Pacific hurricane season continues to have a hot start. While Tropical Storm Daniel has begun to weaken and should dissipate by Wednesday, two more named storms – Emilia and Fabio – are likely to develop over the eastern Pacific by the end of June. In the Atlantic, there are no disturbances that the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are monitoring for development, but some global models are hinting at the possibility of development off the United States east coast…

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