CYCLONIC FURY

Tropical Storm Daniel forms over the eastern Pacific, 94E may develop before it merges with another disturbance

June 24, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Saturday evening, Tropical Depression Five-E formed over the eastern Pacific far from land. This morning, the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Daniel. Daniel is likely to strengthen a bit more before weakening begins on Monday as the tropical storm reaches cooler water. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Daniel was centered near 16.0N 115.9W, and was moving northward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of…

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Global tropics now quiet, as Carlotta dissipates

June 19, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

With the dissipation of Tropical Storm Carlotta, the tropics are now quiet with no tropical cyclone development predicted in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific over the next five days. Global models also show no development, either. It is not uncommon to see a lull in the tropics, and it appears as if we are headed for one. I will be back with another post by sometime next week, or sooner if the threat of tropical cyclogenesis returns to the…

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Carlotta meandering near Mexico coast, Gulf disturbance poorly organized

June 17, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

After a brief period of organization Saturday night in which an eyewall was visible in radar imagery, Tropical Storm Carlotta has weakened significantly this morning. The tiny tropical storm may not even make landfall in Mexico before it degenerates into a remnant low. In the Atlantic, the area of disturbed weather Gulf of Mexico remains poorly organized, and a low-level circulation does not exist. After Carlotta and this Gulf of Mexico disturbance, there should be a lull in activity over…

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TS Carlotta near the coast of Mexico, disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico may slightly develop

June 16, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Carlotta over the Eastern Pacific has moved slower than anticipated and remains offshore southern Mexico. In the Atlantic, a trough is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near the Yucatan Peninsula, and has a low chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Monday as it approaches the Texas coast. Carlotta remains offshore Mexico but likely to move inland tonight or early tomorrow As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Saturday, Tropical Storm Carlotta was centered near…

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Bud a Tropical Depression, Four-E now TS Carlotta, a new Caribbean disturbance to watch

June 15, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Now a tropical depression, once-powerful Bud is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone over the narrow Gulf of California. To the east of Bud, Tropical Depression Four-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Carlotta, and is expected to make landfall in the Mexican state of Guerrero or Oaxaca early Saturday morning. In the Atlantic, a sharp surface trough has developed near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, and is expected to merge with the remnants of…

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TS Bud headed for Baja California Sur, another eastern Pacific tropical depression

June 14, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The active period in the eastern Pacific continues. Tropical Storm Bud is approaching Baja California Sur this evening, and is expected to make two landfalls (one in Baja California Sur late tonight and a second along the coast of Mainland Mexico late Friday night as a tropical depression). To the east of Bud, a new tropical depression has developed, the fourth of the season for the eastern Pacific basin. In the Atlantic, Invest 91L is little threat to develop, but…

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Bud weakens to a tropical storm, 93E may develop, 91L unlikely to develop

June 13, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Bud weakened to a tropical storm on Wednesday morning as it tracked northwestward over cooler waters. Bud should continue to gradually weaken over the next couple of days as it approaches the Baja California peninsula. To the east of Bud, an area of low pressure has developed (designated Invest 93E) and could gradually develop into a tropical depression by Saturday. Invest 91L remains active over the Northwestern Caribbean, but is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone due to…

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Bud begins to weaken, Invest 91L unlikely to develop over Northwestern Caribbean, another Pacific disturbance

June 12, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

After peaking as a Category 4 hurricane during the early morning hours Tuesday, Hurricane Bud over the eastern Pacific has begun to weaken this afternoon as it moves over cooler waters. Now a low-end Category 3 hurricane, continued weakening is expected for Bud over the next few days before it becomes a post-tropical remnant low by Saturday. In addition to Bud, there is a disturbance to watch over the Caribbean (Invest 91L) and another potential eastern Pacific system. As of…

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Bud a major hurricane, Aletta dissipates, a Caribbean disturbance to watch

June 11, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Hurricane Bud over the Eastern Pacific rapidly intensified overnight into the second major hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season. Bud is now a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and some Dvorak estimates suggest it may be even stronger. To the west of Bud, Tropical Storm Aletta has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. In the Atlantic basin, there is a disturbance in the Western Caribbean Sea that has a low chance of tropical development by…

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Bud rapidly develops into a hurricane, Aletta hanging on as a tropical storm

June 10, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

After being only a tropical depression 24 hours ago, Hurricane Bud has rapidly developed over the far eastern Pacific and is expected to continue intensifying for the next 24-36 hours or so. To the west of Bud, Aletta continues to hang on as a tropical storm. As of 4:00 p.m. CDT (5:00 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Hurricane Bud was centered near 15.3°N 104.2°W, and was moving northwestward at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 65 knots (75 mph), with an estimated minimum…

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