CYCLONIC FURY

Alberto headed for landfall in Western Florida Panhandle

May 27, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Subtropical Storm Alberto has only strengthened slightly since yesterday, and is expected to make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon. Due to dry air entrainment and moderate southeasterly wind shear, Alberto has been unable to significantly strengthen, and the storm has not transitioned into a tropical cyclone. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight before landfall if Alberto is able to fight off the dry air, but it appears as if time is running out for significant strengthening….

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SS Alberto slightly better organized as it reforms center in Gulf of Mexico

May 26, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Subtropical Storm Alberto is slightly better organized today. The original low-level circulation over the Northwestern Caribbean has dissipated and a new, well-defined circulation has developed northwest of Cuba. Alberto is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics, and should transition into a fully tropical storm by late Sunday. Most of the model guidance has shifted slightly east today, and it appears as if Alberto will make landfall somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Pensacola, Florida sometime on Monday. It appears less likely today that…

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Subtropical Storm Alberto forms over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

May 25, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

For the fourth year in a row, a pre-season tropical or subtropical cyclone has formed over the Atlantic basin. At 11:00 a.m. EDT Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Northwestern Caribbean. Alberto is expected to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, where it will likely find environmental conditions more favorable for strengthening. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, newly-named Subtropical Storm Alberto was centered near 19.7°N 86.8°W, and was moving north-northeast at…

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Invest 90L becoming better organized over the Yucatan Peninsula, expected to develop

May 24, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 90L is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday morning, and will likely make landfall somewhere between the western Florida Panhandle and eastern Louisiana. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a 70 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance within five days. Models have come into better agreement from yesterday, and it appears likely that the Atlantic will see a pre-season named storm for the fourth season in a row….

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Invest 90L likely to develop over Gulf of Mexico this weekend – heavy rain remains the primary threat

May 23, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Showers and thunderstorms have become slightly better organized with Invest 90L, currently located over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Strong wind shear and land interaction are expected to limit organization for the next couple of days, but some development is likely by Saturday when it emerges into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) now gives 90L a near zero percent chance of formation within 48 hours, but a 60 percent chance within five days. The…

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Invest 90L may develop over Gulf of Mexico, potential track remains very uncertain

May 22, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

On Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated an elongated surface low over the Northwestern Caribbean Invest 90L – the first “Invest” of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. The NHC gives 90L a near zero percent chance of development during the next 48 hours, but a 40 percent chance of development within five days. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for potential tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May forecast update: Much less active season than last year predicted

May 22, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Cyclonic Fury has released our May 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast update. We have lowered our numbers slightly since the March forecast. Cyclonic Fury now anticipates 10-14 named storms to form during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, along with 4-7 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. This updated outlook calls for a 75% probability of near or below average activity. This forecast reduction is based on two primary factors: cooler tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a moderate chance for a…

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Possible tropical cyclone likely to cause a wet Memorial Day Weekend for the Southeast

May 21, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical cyclone development over the Gulf of Mexico is becoming increasingly likely late this week or early this weekend. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) for a weak surface trough currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, giving the disturbance a near zero percent chance of development within 48 hours and a 20 percent chance within five days. Although upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for a strong storm, a sheared…

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Sheared tropical cyclone may form over the Gulf of Mexico – potential track still uncertain

May 20, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

A weak, sheared tropical cyclone could still form over the Gulf of Mexico by late this week. The 12z Sunday ECMWF, CMC and ICON models all predicted the development of a tropical storm over the central Gulf of Mexico by next Saturday. The GFS model is much farther east than the other models, predicting an elongated low pressure system will track to the northeast over the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic. Given the high-shear environment, it would not be…

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Broad low pressure area likely to form over the Northwestern Caribbean next week, may develop

May 18, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has a chance to form late next week – and may lead to a messy Memorial Day weekend for Florida and the Southeastern United States, regardless of development. A Central American Gyre (CAG) and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) are expected to increase convection over the Western Caribbean Sea, leading to the formation of a broad area of low pressure. The low pressure area is expected to be pulled…

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