CYCLONIC FURY

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

May 15, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday…

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Low pressure system over Gulf of Mexico struggling to organize

May 14, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

A broad, non-tropical low pressure system, located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, has not become better organized today. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased the development chances of the disturbance to 20% within 48 hours and 30% within five days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit the disturbance on Tuesday afternoon, but with decreasing chances of development, this flight may be canceled. Although tropical or subtropical development is becoming less likely, the disturbance…

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Chances of Subtropical or Tropical Development over Northeast Gulf of Mexico Increasing

May 13, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) Sunday afternoon on an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper-level trough – giving the disturbance a 30 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 40 percent chance of development within five days. It is possible that this area of disturbed weather could develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days before it is expected to move inland into the Florida…

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Subtropical development possible in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico early next week

May 12, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Depression One-E has degenerated into a remnant low, but there is already another system in the tropics to watch over the coming days. An upper-level low pressure system is expected to reach the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and has the potential to gain some tropical or subtropical characteristics before moving inland into the Northern Gulf Coast late Tuesday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned this system in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO). The 12z Saturday…

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TD One-E hanging on, Gulf of Mexico may warrant monitoring early next week

May 11, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The first tropical depression of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season, Tropical Depression One-E, is holding on as a tropical depression despite strong wind shear over the eastern Pacific. One-E, which formed on Thursday afternoon, is likely to degenerate into a remnant low late today or early tomorrow. The remnants of One-E should move slowly north-northwestward before fully dissipating by Sunday. One-E is no threat to any land areas. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Depression One-E was…

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It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

May 10, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first tropical cyclone advisory of 2018 Thursday afternoon, with the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression One-E over the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E, which remained poorly organized on Wednesday, became better organized Thursday with the formation of a sufficiently well defined circulation to be classified as a tropical depression. One-E is not expected to become a named tropical storm, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. One-E is…

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Invest 90E running out of time to develop

May 9, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has struggled to develop persistent deep convection near its elongated center of circulation, and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are diminishing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave it a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 10:25 AM PDT (1:25 PM EDT). This is down from the 70 percent chance NHC gave 90E early Wednesday morning. Because 90E…

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Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

May 8, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has become a little better organized today as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 90E a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. Scatterometer data from Tuesday afternoon indicates that the circulation has become much better defined, and an increase in convective organization will likely result in the formation of a tropical depression on Wednesday. 90E is no threat to land. As…

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Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

May 7, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The first “Invest” of the year for the Eastern Pacific – 90E – was designated Monday afternoon. 90E has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next five days, but conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by late week and into the weekend. 90E is no threat to any land areas. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane names

May 6, 2018 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

With the first tropical cyclone of 2018 potentially on the horizon for the Eastern Pacific basin, I thought it would be a good time to review the names that will be used this season in the basin. Just like the Atlantic basin, the Eastern Pacific has six rotating name lists that alternate between male and female names. There is one significant exception, however: the Eastern Pacific has names that start with X, Y and Z that alternate in odd and…

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