Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

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Although the trough near the Bahamas did not develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, there is a strong model consensus that the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season may form next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the open Pacific near 10°N 120°W, and this system will need to be watched for potential development next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned…

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Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

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Late Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) of 2018 on the trough near the Bahamas. The system unofficially kicks off the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins in just four weeks on June 1. NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. It has not been given an “Invest” designation. The trough is expected to move westward,…

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Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

Continuing to watch the Bahamas for slight development late this week and this weekend

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Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have developed near the Bahamas today. A surface trough is expected to form north of Puerto Rico early Thursday morning, and this system has a very small chance of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics by Saturday. Wind shear over the region is currently extremely high – about 70 knots. However, shear is likely to drop on Friday as an upper-level low will move into the region – giving this system a narrow window of tropical or…

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Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

Low chance of subtropical development near the Bahamas this weekend

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins in just one month, but there is a system worth watching for at least some slight development this weekend. A weak surface low pressure system is expected to develop southeast of the Bahamas late this week, and there is a low chance that it could take on some subtropical or tropical characteristics this weekend. This has been a hotspot for May tropical cyclones in recent years. Six tropical cyclones have formed in the Atlantic…

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World Meteorological Organization retires four Atlantic storm names

World Meteorological Organization retires four Atlantic storm names

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The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced Thursday morning at the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane committee that they had retired four Atlantic storm names from List III of the six rotating hurricane naming lists. The WMO retired the names Harvey, Irma, Maria and Nate – the four most destructive storms of the costliest-on-record 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.  They have been replaced with Harold, Idalia, Margot and Nigel respectively. The four names retired is the most since the 2005…

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CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

CSU, TSR release differing forecasts for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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Two of the most well known hurricane season forecast groups both released their preliminary April outlooks for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday. Colorado State University (CSU), led by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, as well as Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), led by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr. Adam Lea, released outlooks with very different predictions.  However, both of these groups believe that the upcoming hurricane season, which officially begins in only eight weeks, will be less…

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Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

Cyclonic Fury’s March 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast

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Today is March 20 – the vernal (spring) equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The start of spring is a reminder that the start of hurricane season will soon be upon us in just over two months. On June 1, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will officially begin, although there is about a 10 percent chance a storm could form before then. There is considerable uncertainty about how warm the tropical Atlantic will be during the peak of the season, as…

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Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

Cyclonic Fury’s early 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: above-normal activity the most likely scenario, but questions remain

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It may be December and the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is over five months away, but it is not too early to begin to speculate on what the next hurricane season will be like. The Atlantic basin featured hyperactive activity in 2017, with 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, along with a very high Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 226 units. The Atlantic’s 2017 season came after an also active but less intense 2016 season, which…

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Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

Hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season comes to an end

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November 30 marks the official end of the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons. After seven months of activity, beginning with Tropical Storm Arlene in April and ending with Tropical Storm Rina in November, it is finally over. While the Eastern Pacific had an active, but fairly uneventful season, the Atlantic recorded its fifth most active season in terms of named storms and seventh most active season in terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). The season will generally be most…

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Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

Unusual November Tropical Action: Watching Invests 96L and 94E

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It may be Veterans Day, but the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons still may not be over just yet. A trough of low pressure located southwest of the Azores – recently designated Invest 96L – has a chance to develop some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves northeastward. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 94E is becoming better organized quickly this afternoon and could become a tropical depression over the next couple days as it moves…

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