CYCLONIC FURY

Rina now post-tropical, could the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season be over?

November 9, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Rina transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone Thursday morning, with cold air being wrapped into its circulation. The post-tropical remnants of Rina should dissipate tomorrow or Saturday. The dissipation of Rina could mark the end of the extremely active and destructive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. But will it? Atlantic hurricane season does not officially end until November 30, and it’s not out of the question to see development during the month of December. While the majority of Atlantic hurricane…

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Rina strengthens a little more – expected to turn post-tropical Wednesday night or Thursday morning

November 8, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Rina has strengthened a little more today as it moves northward into the cool waters of the Northern Atlantic. Rina has begun to acquire some subtropical characteristics, with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and little deep convection near the center. However, Rina maintains a warm core so it has not been declared a post-tropical cyclone yet. Regardless, Rina should transition into an extratropical cyclone late tonight or early Thursday as it loses all deep convection and becomes embedded in…

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Tropical Storm Rina strengthening over the Atlantic

November 7, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Rina, the seventeenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, is gradually gaining strength over the central subtropical Atlantic. As of 10:00 p.m. EST Tuesday, Rina was centered near 35.4°N 48.5°W, and was moving northward at about 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 45 knots (50 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Rina is likely to strengthen a little more on Wednesday, partially aided by baroclinic forcing and marginally favorable conditions. Rina should then transition…

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Non-threatening Tropical Depression Nineteen forms over the Open Atlantic

November 6, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet. A non-tropical area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic acquired a well-defined circulation and persistent deep convection, resulting in the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression Nineteen early this morning. The depression is no threat to land, and is likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Rina later today or on Tuesday as it moves north-northeastward through a marginally favorable environment. If Nineteen does become named Rina, 2017 will…

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Philippe dissipates, two non-threatening disturbances could develop

October 29, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The short life of Tropical Storm Philippe came to an end on Sunday afternoon, as strong shear and a merger with a cold front has caused Philippe’s well-defined circulation to lose definition to the point where it can longer be considered a tropical cyclone. After Philippe, there are two non-threatening disturbances – one in the Atlantic and one in the Eastern Pacific – that could develop into a tropical cyclone as we get into November, the final month of the…

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Poorly organized Philippe forms near Cuba, Selma dissipates

October 28, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

On Saturday morning, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was upgraded to Tropical Depression Eighteen, and has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Philippe – the sixteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Philippe is a poorly organized tropical storm, and does not have a structure very typical of one. Philippe is now expected to make landfall in Southwestern Florida early Sunday morning, but because of the unusual nature of the storm, Tropical Storm Warnings have not been issued for any…

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PTC 18 expected to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Selma to bring heavy rains to Central America

October 27, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The tropical disturbance over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea, previously known as Invest 93L, has been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. Eighteen is expected to intensify into Tropical Storm Philippe on Saturday, and is expected to make landfall in western Cuba as a tropical storm. PTC Eighteen poised to become Tropical Storm Philippe, Tropical Storm Warnings issued for parts of Cuba and the Bahamas As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen was centered near 18.2°N 84.4°W, and was…

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Invest 93L over Caribbean still may develop, but Invest 92E in East Pacific more likely to develop

October 26, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

There are two tropical disturbances currently being monitored for development – Invest 93L over the Western Caribbean Sea and Invest 92E over the Eastern Pacific. Both have the opportunity to develop through the weekend. Invest 93L still could become a tropical cyclone, likely to help boost a nor’easter early next week The broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean – Invest 93L – has not become much better organized today. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 93L was…

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Little change with Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea

October 24, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 93L over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea has not become any better organized since yesterday. As of 00:00 UTC Wednesday, Invest 93L was centered near 13.0°N 83.4°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1007 mb. It should be noted that an ASCAT pass from earlier today suggests that this wind estimate may be generous. 93L is producing widespread, but poorly organized, thunderstorms, both inland Central America and over the…

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93L over Western Caribbean may develop this week

October 23, 2017 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

A broad, but not very well organized, area of low pressure has developed over the northeastern Nicaraguan Coast. This low pressure system has been designated Invest 93L, and has a medium chance of becoming Tropical Depression Eighteen or Tropical Storm Philippe by late week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 93L a 10 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 50 percent chance within five days. As of 00:00 UTC Tuesday, 93L was centered near 14.0°N 83.0°W, and was…

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