CYCLONIC FURY

Cyclonic Fury’s June 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: a battle between El Niño and a very warm Atlantic makes this forecast highly uncertain

June 6, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially began last Thursday, with Tropical Storm Arlene forming right as the season started (it was actually not the first classifiable system of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January). As we get closer to the peak of the season, usually the upcoming hurricane season becomes easier to forecast. However, 2023 is shaping up to be quite unusual, and is quite possibly the most challenging June forecast I’ve had to write. With…

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Arlene weakens to tropical depression, expected to dissipate later today

June 3, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Tropical Storm Arlene weakened to a depression this morning as it drifts south-southeastward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. As of 10:00 a.m. CDT (11:00 a.m. EDT), Tropical Depression Arlene was centered near 24.2°N 85.1°W, and was moving south-southeastward at about 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1000 mb. Arlene is already nearly devoid of convection, and will likely degenerate into a remnant low this evening. Aside from Arlene, there…

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Tropical Storm Arlene forms over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, likely to be short-lived

June 2, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

An area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico developed into Tropical Depression Two yesterday afternoon, and this afternoon it has strengthened into Tropical Storm Arlene – the first named storm of the season. It should be noted, however, that Arlene is technically not the first sub(tropical) cyclone of the season, as an unnamed subtropical storm developed in January. As of 1:00 p.m. CDT (2:00 p.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Arlene was centered near 26.7°N 86.2°W, and was moving…

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2023 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Invest 91L could develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico

June 1, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Today, June 1st, marks the official start of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on time, there is a system with a serious chance of tropical development. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be a very unique one, with near-record warmth over the tropical Atlantic in spite of a a developing El Niño. I will provide more thoughts on the season as a whole in my forecast update next Tuesday. Among expert forecasters, there has been…

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Cyclonic Fury’s preliminary 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast: Quieter season expected due to potential El Niño

April 4, 2023 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

In just over two months, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will begin. The 2022 season was somewhat quieter than recent seasons, but still was quite impactful. Since 2016, the Atlantic basin has had at least 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes each year, with not one below-average season during this timeframe. There is an increasing chance that streak could end this year as El Niño chances appear to be increasing for this summer and fall. El Niño…

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Active in the tropics: Danielle resilient in the northern Atlantic, Earl likely to pass east of Bermuda, Kay threatens Baja California

September 7, 2022 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The peak of the hurricane season is near, and the Atlantic and eastern Pacific both have hurricanes active (the Atlantic has two). In the Atlantic, Hurricane Danielle is likely to become extratropical tomorrow, while Hurricane Earl is expected to intensify into the first major hurricane of the season east of Bermuda. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Kay is likely to brush the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and could bring tropical storm conditions as far north as the…

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Tropical Storm Alex forms over the western Atlantic, likely to be relatively short-lived

June 5, 2022 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

After bringing tropical storm conditions to southern Florida as a disturbance, Potential Tropical Cyclone One has now acquired a sufficiently well-defined center of circulation to be designated Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Alex is likely to move quickly east-northeastward over the next few days, passing north of Bermuda and becoming extratropical on Tuesday, if not sooner. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Alex was centered near 30.4°N 73.9°W, and was…

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Potential Tropical Cyclone One expected to become a tropical storm Friday, bring tropical storm conditions to southern Florida

June 2, 2022 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has initiated advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC 1), located near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. PTC 1 is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday and make landfall over the southwestern Florida peninsula on Saturday afternoon. After that, PTC 1 is expected to accelerate northeastward with some slight additional intensification possible. Tropical Storm Watches have already been issued for western Cuba, the southern Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas. The…

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2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins with two systems to watch – tropical system likely to affect western Florida this weekend

June 1, 2022 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Today is June 1, the official start of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Thus far, no tropical or subtropical cyclones have developed, which marks the first time since 2014 in which a pre-season tropical cyclone did not develop in the Atlantic basin. Regardless, the Atlantic is already showing signs of activity, and the Atlantic’s first named storm (Alex) will likely form late this week. This season will use List 2 of the six naming lists used to name tropical storms…

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Cyclonic Fury’s May 2022 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: potentially well-above average season anticipated

May 31, 2022 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins tomorrow. For the first time since 2014, it appears as if we will not see a named storm form prior to the official start of the season. Regardless, environmental conditions appear conducive for the seventh straight above-average Atlantic hurricane season, with a persistent La Nina in place and a continuation of an ongoing active era of Atlantic hurricane activity. Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures Currently, the overall sea surface temperature anomaly pattern appears favorable…

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