CYCLONIC FURY

TS Grace enters the Caribbean Sea, Fred expected to redevelop Sunday in Gulf of Mexico

August 14, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic basin remains active, with Tropical Storm Grace entering the Caribbean Sea as well as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred are expected to re-develop into a tropical depression by Sunday. In addition, there is an area of low pressure north of Bermuda being monitored for potential tropical development. As of 8:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Grace was located near 16.6°N 61.5°W, and was moving westward at about 23 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph),…

Read More Read More

TS Fred inland over Hispaniola, Invest 95L may develop over the next few days

August 11, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Late Tuesday night, a tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea developed into Tropical Storm Fred, the sixth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Fred’s formation ends a lull of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity that lasted over a month. Fred’s formation date is still significantly earlier than the average sixth Atlantic named storm, but is over a month later than Tropical Storm Fay’s formation on July 9 last year. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Fred…

Read More Read More

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six likely to become tropical storm near the Leeward Islands

August 9, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

After a month without any tropical cyclones active, the Atlantic basin is once again starting to get more active as the climatological peak of the season gets closer. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles, which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, has a high chance to become the Atlantic’s next tropical storm. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Six was centered near 14.2°N 59.2°W, and was moving westward at about 15…

Read More Read More

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2021 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Very active season expected, but less active than 2020

July 29, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season got off to a very fast start, with Tropical Storm Ana forming in May, Tropical Storms Bill, Claudette and Danny in June, and Hurricane Elsa in early July. Elsa was the earliest hurricane to form in the Atlantic deep tropics east of the Lesser Antilles of the satellite era, and passed near Barbados as a hurricane. Elsa made several landfalls along its path through the Caribbean, and eventually made landfall in northwestern Florida as a…

Read More Read More

Invest 90L could develop into a tropical depression before moving inland into Florida

July 24, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Invest 90L, an area of low pressure that has developed along a decaying frontal boundary, has a medium chance to become the next tropical depression of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. After Hurricane Elsa at the start of this month, the Atlantic basin has been quiet, though this is typical for the month of July, which averages about one named storm a year. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 90L was centered near 29.0°N 77.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were 30…

Read More Read More

Hurricane Elsa, the Atlantic’s first hurricane of 2021, speeding westward through the Caribbean

July 2, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

Based on reports of sustained hurricane-force winds from Barbados, Tropical Storm Elsa was upgraded to a hurricane on Friday morning, the first of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Elsa became the earliest hurricane to form in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) of the satellite era, and is the first July hurricane in the eastern Caribbean Sea since Hurricane Emily in 2005. A hurricane in this region is very concerning for so early in the season, and could be a…

Read More Read More

Tropical Storm Elsa, Atlantic’s earliest “E” storm, heading for the Lesser Antilles

July 1, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The fifth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season and first named storm of July, Tropical Storm Elsa, was named early Thursday morning over the deep tropical Atlantic. Elsa is the Atlantic’s earliest fifth named storm on record, breaking the record of Tropical Storm Edouard set just last year. Elsa is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to the Lesser Antilles on Friday and likely the Greater Antilles this weekend. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Elsa…

Read More Read More

Potential Tropical Cyclone Five likely to become tropical storm east of the Lesser Antilles

June 30, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

A vigorous tropical wave associated with a broad area of low pressure, located over the central tropical Atlantic, has been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Five by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The NHC initiates Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories to disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but both 1) have a high chance of development within 48 hours and 2) tropical storm watches or warnings are required for an area within 48 hours. Five is likely to become the…

Read More Read More

June-tember: Monitoring Invests 95L and 97L over the tropical Atlantic

June 29, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

It looks much more like September than late June over the deep tropical Atlantic, with two tropical waves currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for development. Invest 95L, located east of the Lesser Antilles, has not become much better organized, and its development chances appear to be decreasing. However, newly-designated Invest 97L over the southeastern tropical Atlantic is looking increasingly likely to be the Atlantic’s first deep tropics cyclone of 2021. Should either or both of 95L or…

Read More Read More

Tropical Storm Danny forms off the coast of South Carolina, expected to make landfall this evening

June 28, 2021 Daulton Bahm Comments 0 Comment

The Atlantic’s fourth named storm – Tropical Storm Danny – formed Monday afternoon, over the western Atlantic off the South Carolina coast. Danny’s formation makes it the fourth named storm of the season, and the first time since 1968 in which three named storms formed during June. Danny’s formation also marks the fourth time since 2012 in which the “D” named storm formed in June, which had not happened prior to 2012. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm…

Read More Read More