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Tag: 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

Low chance of tropical cyclone development in Southwest Caribbean this weekend, development in East Pacific also a possibility

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A westerly wind burst is expected to occur in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. Westerly wind bursts are often associated with the development of El Niño, but they can also enhance cyclonic turning at the low latitudes. Most models agree that an area of low pressure is likely to form in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea in 48-72 hours, with the low likely moving inland into Central America by hour 96. Tropical cyclone development at this latitude is fairly rare because usually…

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Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

Uptick in African tropical wave activity likely next week, weak deep tropics development not out of the question

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The CFSv2 and GFS models are consistent with showing an increase in upward motion in the eastern tropical Atlantic in about 7-10 days. In addition, the models show well above-normal rainfall just off the coast of Africa. This indicates that a major uptick in African tropical waves is likely soon, with stronger, more vigorous waves emerging into the Atlantic. Tropical wave activity in the Atlantic typically begins in mid-to-late May and lasts until November, occasionally early December, with a peak…

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A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: June 3, 2017

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Usually I release “A Look At The Atlantic” posts on Fridays, but with Beatriz, I had to delay this post until today. Anyway, it is time to take a look at the Atlantic, the first since the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. The Atlantic remains mostly quiet, with the exception of an area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, which is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz. The National Hurricane Center mentioned the…

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Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

Invest 94B in Bay of Bengal close to Tropical Cyclone Status, new area of interest in East Pacific

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Update 5:00 PM EDT: Invest 94B has now developed into Tropical Cyclone 02B. Invest 94B in the Bay of Bengal of the Indian Ocean is nearly a tropical cyclone. 94B has had persistent deep convection for several hours now, and a recent ASCAT pass showed that the circulation of the system was well-defined. The ASCAT pass also showed winds of tropical storm force. 94B is likely to develop into Cyclonic Storm Mora during the next day or two, and could…

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Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Tropical Storm Risk raises their prediction for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season

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Yesterday, Britain-based meteorological company Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an updated forecast for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. They predicted that the 2017 Atlantic season would have near-normal activity overall, with 14 (+/- 4) named storms, 6 (+/- 3) hurricanes and 3 (+/- 2) major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value of 98 (+/- 48). This is an increase from their previous forecast on April 5, in which they predicted 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major…

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A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

A look at the Atlantic: May 26, 2017

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It’s Friday, and that means it is time for a look at the Atlantic. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic Ocean continue to warm gradually as we near the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season next Thursday.  The Atlantic should remain quiet for a bit longer, but should be primed for activity fairly soon. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES Based on the latest Reynolds SST analysis, SSTs have now reached 26°C  – the typical threshold for tropical cyclone development – in…

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NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

NOAA: Expect an active hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific

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As expected, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their 2017 hurricane season forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins this morning. Their outlook calls for a near to above average season for both basins. NOAA largely based their forecasts on the development of a “weak or nonexistent El Niño.” For the Atlantic basin, NOAA is expecting 11 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 4 major hurricanes. Their report also called for a 45%…

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2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

2017 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to be released from NOAA tomorrow, other forecast updates also to be released soon

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Tomorrow, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is expected to release their official 2017 forecasts for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins. This forecast is usually the most anticipated one of the year. Last year, NOAA predicted in late May that the Atlantic would see 10-16 named storms, 4-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes. This forecast verified quite well at the upper end of the range, with the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season seeing 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes…

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Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

Models Drop Tropical Development in East Pacific and Caribbean

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Sunday’s model runs of the GFS and ECMWF have nearly abandoned the idea of tropical development in the East Pacific or Caribbean. None of the 12z Sunday GFS or ECMWF runs showed development of a tropical cyclone in the Western Hemisphere over the next 10 days. In fact, meteorologist Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center practically said to disregard Caribbean storms shown on the GFS model at this point in the season, posting on Twitter: “GFS seems like it…

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Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

Tropics could awaken soon, but models disagree where

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The tropics may not be quiet for much longer. Some tropical development is possible next week, but models are not in agreement on which basin will see activity. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently unfavorable, but both the GFS and CFS models show the MJO becoming more favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Western Atlantic by the week 2 period. The 12z Saturday ECMWF model indicated the possibility of development in the East Pacific about 7-8 days out, while the…

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