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Tag: 2018 Pacific hurricane season

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

Tropical development not expected in Gulf of Mexico, 2018 Pacific hurricane season officially begins

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The non-tropical area of low pressure located over the Gulf of Mexico has failed to organize, and tropical or subtropical development appears quite unlikely at this time. In a 8:00 a.m. EDT Tuesday Special Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowered 48-hour and five-day development chances to 10%. It appears as if the dry environment and fairly cool sea surface temperatures. The low pressure system remains poorly organized, with minimal convective activity. None of the reliable 12z Wednesday…

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It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

It begins: Tropical Depression One-E forms over the open eastern Pacific

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first tropical cyclone advisory of 2018 Thursday afternoon, with the initiation of advisories on Tropical Depression One-E over the Eastern Pacific. Invest 90E, which remained poorly organized on Wednesday, became better organized Thursday with the formation of a sufficiently well defined circulation to be classified as a tropical depression. One-E is not expected to become a named tropical storm, and is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by late Friday. One-E is…

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Invest 90E running out of time to develop

Invest 90E running out of time to develop

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has struggled to develop persistent deep convection near its elongated center of circulation, and chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone are diminishing. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave it a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days in a Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 10:25 AM PDT (1:25 PM EDT). This is down from the 70 percent chance NHC gave 90E early Wednesday morning. Because 90E…

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Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

Invest 90E becoming better organized over the Eastern Pacific

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Invest 90E over the Eastern Pacific has become a little better organized today as it moves west-northwestward through the tropical Pacific. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 90E a 50 percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. Scatterometer data from Tuesday afternoon indicates that the circulation has become much better defined, and an increase in convective organization will likely result in the formation of a tropical depression on Wednesday. 90E is no threat to land. As…

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Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

Invest 90E in Eastern Pacific may develop over the next few days

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The first “Invest” of the year for the Eastern Pacific – 90E – was designated Monday afternoon. 90E has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the next five days, but conditions are expected to become less conducive for development by late week and into the weekend. 90E is no threat to any land areas. An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather being monitored for possible tropical or subtropical development. Invests are…

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2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane names

2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane names

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With the first tropical cyclone of 2018 potentially on the horizon for the Eastern Pacific basin, I thought it would be a good time to review the names that will be used this season in the basin. Just like the Atlantic basin, the Eastern Pacific has six rotating name lists that alternate between male and female names. There is one significant exception, however: the Eastern Pacific has names that start with X, Y and Z that alternate in odd and…

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Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

Pre-season tropical development possible in Eastern Pacific next week

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Although the trough near the Bahamas did not develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, there is a strong model consensus that the first tropical cyclone of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season may form next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form over the open Pacific near 10°N 120°W, and this system will need to be watched for potential development next week as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not yet mentioned…

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Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

Bahamas trough not expected to develop, East Pacific development next week?

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Late Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued their first Special Tropical Weather Outlook (STWO) of 2018 on the trough near the Bahamas. The system unofficially kicks off the start of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins in just four weeks on June 1. NHC gives this system a near zero percent chance of development, both within 48 hours and five days. It has not been given an “Invest” designation. The trough is expected to move westward,…

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