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Tag: 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

Invest 92L likely to develop into a tropical storm over the Northern Gulf of Mexico late this week

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It is looking increasingly likely that a tropical cyclone will form over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this week. A broad trough of low pressure, currently centered over central Georgia, is expected to drift southwestward into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. At that time, environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to develop by Friday. This system has been designated Invest 92L while still over land, which is not…

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Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

Increasing chance of tropical cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico late this week

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A trough of low pressure located over northern Georgia is expected to drift southward into the Gulf of Mexico in a few days, where a surface low pressure area could lead to the development of the North Atlantic’s first tropical cyclone of 2019. If a tropical cyclone does develop, it remains uncertain which path it will take, with the GFS and CMC models favoring more of an eastward solution and the ECMWF model favoring more of a westward solution. The…

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Barbara post-tropical, TS Cosme forms, Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched next week

Barbara post-tropical, TS Cosme forms, Gulf of Mexico needs to be watched next week

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Hurricane Barbara has transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone, but a new tropical storm has formed in the eastern Pacific – Cosme. Cosme is no threat to land, and appears to have a short life ahead of it with no significant strengthening. However, in the Atlantic, a trough currently inland over the United States could eventually spawn a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico next week, which needs to be watched for possible tropical development. As of 8:00 a.m….

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91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

91L very unlikely to develop as it brings heavy rainfall to the Western Gulf Coast

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Due to its large size and increasing wind shear, Invest 91L has struggled to develop, and it is likely out of time to develop into a tropical cyclone. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91L was centered near  23.8°N 97.4°W. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1008 mb. Although thunderstorm activity has increased today, the disturbance remains disorganized and continues to lack a well-defined circulation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 91L…

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Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

Little change with Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche

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Invest 91L over the Bay of Campeche has not changed much in organization since yesterday. The associated thunderstorm activity remains somewhat disorganized, and the low-level circulation is not yet well defined enough to be classified as a tropical depression. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to visit 91L this afternoon, but the flight was canceled as 91L remains poorly organized. As of 18:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 91L was centered near 19.7°N 94.5°W, and was nearly stationary. Maximum sustained…

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Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

Tropical development possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday or Monday

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Tomorrow marks the official start of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, and right on schedule, there is a system in the Atlantic basin to watch already. One subtropical storm has already developed in the Atlantic in 2019 (Andrea, earlier this month). A broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula has a small chance to develop into the Atlantic’s second named storm of 2019 if it has enough time over water. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system…

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Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

Andrea now post-tropical, disturbance in eastern Pacific may develop by the weekend

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Short-lived Subtropical Storm Andrea weakened into a Subtropical Depression on Tuesday morning, and as of 5:00 p.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued the last advisory on Andrea, which has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. Andrea has lacked persistent deep convection since early this morning, so it is no longer a subtropical cyclone. Also, we are watching a disturbance in the eastern Pacific once again for possible gradual development. Short-lived Andrea now a post-tropical remnant low As…

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Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

Subtropical Storm Andrea forms southwest of Bermuda

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The Atlantic’s first named storm of 2019 – Subtropical Storm Andrea – developed Monday evening southwest of Bermuda. Andrea marks the fifth straight year in which the Atlantic basin has had a named storm develop before the official start of the season (June 1). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the disturbance (90L) this afternoon, and found a well-defined circulation. As of 6:30 p.m. EDT Monday, Subtropical Storm Andrea was centered near 28.8°N 68.7°W, and was moving northward at…

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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

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The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

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There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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