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Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

Tropical Storm Cristobal forms over the southeastern Bay of Campeche, likely to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast in 5-6 days

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The Atlantic’s earliest third named storm on record was named Tuesday morning – Tropical Storm Cristobal. Cristobal broke the record previously held by Tropical Storm Colin of 2016, which formed on June 5. Cristobal, which is located over the extreme southeastern Bay of Campeche, is likely to make landfall in the Mexican state of Campeche during the next day or so, before moving northward and threatening the United States Gulf Coast on Sunday or Monday. Note that the name Cristobal…

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2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially begins; Tropical Depression Three forms over the Bay of Campeche

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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season officially began today, though two tropical storms had already formed – Arthur and Bertha. Arthur strengthened into a moderately strong tropical storm off the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks, while Bertha unexpectedly developed and made landfall in South Carolina. Invest 92L nearly developed into a subtropical cyclone early Saturday morning, but was unable to do so. However, Invest 93L has developed into Tropical Depression Three. TD Three, associated with the remnants of eastern…

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92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

92L could become a short-lived subtropical cyclone, 91E likely to develop over eastern Pacific

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For the first time in 2020, there is an Invest (area of investigation) over both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins. Invest 92L over the central Atlantic could become a short-lived, weak subtropical cyclone during the next two days. Invest 91E is likely to develop into a weak tropical cyclone over the extreme eastern Pacific, but brings a heavy rainfall threat to southern Mexico and central America regardless of development. The next name on the Atlantic naming list is…

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Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

Surprise TS Bertha makes landfall near Mount Pleasant, SC; eastern Pacific development likely this weekend

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Yet another May tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this time rather unexpectedly. On Wednesday morning, Invest 91L developed a new circulation center underneath the convection mass, and 91L rapidly developed into Tropical Storm Bertha. Bertha has already moved inland into South Carolina, and weakening has already begun. Bertha is the Atlantic’s second tropical storm, approximately two months ahead of climatology. Bertha’s formation makes 2020 the first season since 2016 to feature two pre-season tropical cyclones, and the first…

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Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

Surface trough off eastern Florida not likely to become a tropical cyclone, eastern Pacific development possible late this week

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A surface trough is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity off the eastern coast of Florida. Due to strong upper-level winds, development of this trough into a tropical cyclone is unlikely at this time. Regardless, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this disturbance a 20% chance of development, within both the next 48 hours and five days. More likely, however, is the potential development of a tropical cyclone over the far eastern Pacific. A Central American Gyre (CAG) –…

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TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

TS Arthur moving away from North Carolina, expected to become post-tropical Tuesday

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The center of Tropical Storm Arthur passed very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday morning, though the center did not make landfall. After Arthur’s convective structure degraded on Sunday, deep convection redeveloped on Monday morning, and Arthur strengthened. Arthur produced sustained tropical storm force winds across portions of the Outer Banks this morning and afternoon. All Tropical Storm Warnings were discontinued at the 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday advisory. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Monday, Tropical Storm Arthur…

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TS Arthur likely to bring rainfall to eastern North Carolina on Monday

TS Arthur likely to bring rainfall to eastern North Carolina on Monday

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Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, was named Saturday night, but is struggling with marginal sea surface temperatures and dry air. As of 11:00 p.m. EDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Arthur was centered near 32.4°N 76.9°W, and was moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 40 knots (45 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1003 mb. The center of Arthur was approximately 210 miles south-southwest of Hatteras, North Carolina. Arthur’s…

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Tropical Depression One Forms East Of Florida, May Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to NC Outer Banks

Tropical Depression One Forms East Of Florida, May Bring Tropical Storm Conditions to NC Outer Banks

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The North Atlantic’s first tropical depression of 2020 developed Saturday evening – Tropical Depression One. The formation of TD One makes 2020 the sixth consecutive year in which the Atlantic basin has had tropical or subtropical cyclone activity prior to the official start of the season (June 1). 2020 is also the third straight year with a May subtropical or tropical cyclone, and five of the last six years have had May activity in the Atlantic basin. TD One is…

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Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

Invest 90L likely to become tropical or subtropical storm near the Bahamas by Saturday night

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It appears very likely that the Atlantic’s streak of pre-season tropical activity, which began in 2015, will continue for a sixth year. A trough of low pressure – now designated Invest 90L – is likely to organize into 2020’s first tropical or subtropical cyclone, possibly as soon as Friday evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been tentatively scheduled to investigate 90L on Friday afternoon. As of 2:40 p.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave 90L…

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Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

Unprecedented April Tropical Depression forms over the eastern Pacific

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For the first time in recorded history, a tropical cyclone has formed in the eastern Pacific basin during the month of April. Tropical Depression One-E – the earliest tropical cyclone to form in the eastern Pacific east of 140°W – developed Saturday morning, and has a brief window to intensify into a tropical storm Saturday night before conditions become unfavorable. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT/2:00 p.m. PDT Saturday, Tropical Depression One-E was centered near 14.5°N 116.9°W, and was moving northwestward…

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