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Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms over the Northern Atlantic, TS Lane expected to become a major hurricane in the central Pacific

Subtropical Storm Ernesto forms over the Northern Atlantic, TS Lane expected to become a major hurricane in the central Pacific

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The strange 2018 Atlantic hurricane season continues. Subtropical Storm Ernesto has formed over the Northern Atlantic, the fifth named storm of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Ernesto is the fourth named storm this season to have subtropical characteristics at some point during its life. Ernesto has developed more than two weeks before the average fifth named storm in the Atlantic basin (August 31). Now that we are in mid-August, we are entering the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. The…

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98L over subtropical Atlantic may acquire subtropical characteristics, 97E in eastern Pacific expected to develop

98L over subtropical Atlantic may acquire subtropical characteristics, 97E in eastern Pacific expected to develop

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There are currently no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins, but there is a low pressure system that may develop in each basin. In the Atlantic, a non-tropical low (Invest 98L) is developing a new center of circulation and could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics by early Thursday. In the eastern Pacific, a well-defined low pressure system (Invest 97E) is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or two as it tracks westward…

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Hector now a hurricane, two more areas of interest in the eastern Pacific

Hector now a hurricane, two more areas of interest in the eastern Pacific

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Tropical Storm Hector intensified into the fourth hurricane of the 2018 Pacific hurricane season early Thursday. Hector is the first hurricane to form in the east Pacific basin since Fabio in early July. Hector is likely to intensify into a major hurricane as it tracks generally westward over the next several days. It is too soon to determine if Hector will have direct impacts in Hawaii. As of 8:00 a.m. PDT (11:00 a.m. EDT) Thursday, Hurricane Hector was centered near…

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Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

Cyclonic Fury’s final 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Slightly below average activity anticipated

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Cyclonic Fury has released its July 2018 Atlantic hurricane season forecast update, and we now anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will see activity slightly below the long-term average. Our final forecast anticipates a total of 10-13 named storms to form in the Atlantic basin this year, along with 5-7 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 80 (+/- 20) units. This forecast includes the three systems that have already formed in the Atlantic…

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Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

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Two areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific basin are becoming better organized today and are close to developing into tropical depressions. The eastern Pacific has not yet seen a new tropical cyclone form this July, which is extremely unusual. This is somewhat surprising for what was anticipated to be a very active or even possibly hyperactive season by experts, since July is normally one of the most active months in the eastern Pacific. Behind 91E and 92E, another…

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A line of Pacific disturbances that pose no land threat

A line of Pacific disturbances that pose no land threat

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There continues to be no new tropical cyclones active in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. However, there are three areas of disturbed weather currently being monitored for development in the Eastern Pacific and one in the Central Pacific. The easternmost disturbance, which has not yet formed, is expected to develop into a low pressure system by early next week. The UKMET and ECMWF models both develop this system into a tropical depression by late Wednesday as it moves…

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Two non-threatening, low-chance disturbances in the Pacific

Two non-threatening, low-chance disturbances in the Pacific

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Overall, the tropics are quiet today in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. There are, however, two low-chance disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific, but neither poses any threat to land. The first of the two disturbances, Invest 91C over the central Pacific, has become less organized since yesterday. As of 18:00 UTC Tuesday, Invest 91C was located near 14.2°N 146.9°W, and was moving generally westward. Maximum sustained winds were 25 knots (30 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of…

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Beryl hanging on as a subtropical storm, 99E could develop over the east-central Pacific

Beryl hanging on as a subtropical storm, 99E could develop over the east-central Pacific

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Subtropical Storm Beryl is barely hanging on as a subtropical cyclone this morning, with a small area of deep convection to the southeast of the center. However, Beryl should become a remnant low tonight or on Monday morning, since it is about to move away from the Gulf Stream in about 12 hours. Beryl’s remnants may reach Newfoundland on Tuesday, but they are likely to be very weak by that time and minimal impact is anticipated. In the eastern Pacific,…

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Beryl regenerates into a subtropical storm over the western Atlantic

Beryl regenerates into a subtropical storm over the western Atlantic

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The strange life of once Hurricane Beryl, which was a tiny hurricane in the deep Atlantic tropics last week, continues. The low pressure system associated with the remnants of Beryl have regenerated into a subtropical storm and advisories have been initiated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Beryl is not likely to strengthen much, if at all, and should degenerate into a non-convective remnant low by Monday. As of 1:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, Subtropical Storm Beryl was centered near 36.4°N…

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Beryl’s remnants still may regenerate this weekend

Beryl’s remnants still may regenerate this weekend

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The remnants of Hurricane Beryl have become better organized today and still have a low chance to regenerate into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next day or two. Environmental conditions are only marginal for development, with wind shear moderate to strong and sea surface temperatures are expected to cool by Sunday. As of 18:00 UTC Friday, the remnants of Beryl were located near 34.0°N 68.4°W, and were moving north-northeastward at about 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 25…

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