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Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

Invest 90L could develop into a brief subtropical or tropical cyclone, 91E less organized

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The Atlantic’s first “Invest” – short for area of investigation – was designated early Sunday morning. Invest 90L is currently producing disorganized shower activity well east of the Bahamas, but a narrow window for potential tropical or subtropical development exists between late Monday and Tuesday. If 90L becomes a tropical or subtropical storm, it will be named Andrea. As of 00:00 UTC Monday, Invest 90L was centered near 26.0°N 66.8°W. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an…

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Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

Awakening tropics: 91E in Eastern Pacific could slowly develop, system near the Bahamas may acquire subtropical characteristics next week

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There are two systems to currently watch in the tropics: one in the Atlantic, and one in the eastern Pacific. The eastern Pacific season began three days ago, but the Atlantic hurricane season does not officially begin for two more weeks. Both are given a medium (40%) chance of development by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) over the next five days. As of 18:00 UTC Saturday, Invest 91E was centered near 12.4°N 93.4°W, and was moving little. Maximum sustained winds…

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Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

Invest 91E may slowly develop over the eastern Pacific

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It is only the second day of the 2019 Pacific hurricane season, and there has already been a system designated an “Invest” by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). An Invest – short for area of investigation – is an area of disturbed weather that the NHC believes has a chance of tropical cyclone development. A disorganized area of disturbed weather, Invest 91E, may slowly develop over the next several days as it moves little. As of 12:00 UTC May 16,…

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Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

Invests 91E, 92E likely to develop soon over the eastern Pacific

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Two areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific basin are becoming better organized today and are close to developing into tropical depressions. The eastern Pacific has not yet seen a new tropical cyclone form this July, which is extremely unusual. This is somewhat surprising for what was anticipated to be a very active or even possibly hyperactive season by experts, since July is normally one of the most active months in the eastern Pacific. Behind 91E and 92E, another…

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91E close to Tropical Depression status, disturbance behind 91E may also develop

91E close to Tropical Depression status, disturbance behind 91E may also develop

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Invest 91E over the eastern Pacific basin has become much better organized today, and is close to becoming a tropical depression. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation is becoming better defined, although an ASCAT pass from Tuesday morning was inconclusive as to whether a well defined circulation had formed. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 91E a near 100 percent chance of development within 48 hours. 91E is likely to have advisories initiated by tonight, should become Tropical Storm Aletta…

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91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

91E expected to develop, East Pacific about to get active

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As is typical for June and July, the eastern Pacific basin is about to get active. The basin already has seen one tropical cyclone – Tropical Depression One-E – form this year, but the eastern Pacific should see its first named storm, Aletta, form this week. Invest 91E currently is given by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) a 60 percent chance of development within 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance of development within five days. There is also a…

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Ophelia becomes the Atlantic’s easternmost major hurricane on record, Invests 92L and 91E may develop

Ophelia becomes the Atlantic’s easternmost major hurricane on record, Invests 92L and 91E may develop

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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, so far, has been full of surprises and it managed to pull off another one. On Saturday morning, Ophelia strengthened into a category 3 major hurricane located south-southeast of the Azores. This makes Ophelia the sixth major hurricane of this hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season (the most since 2005), and the easternmost (but not the northernmost) Atlantic major hurricane on record. Only nine Atlantic hurricane seasons have featured as many or more major hurricanes than…

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New African wave could develop, 91E not very likely to develop, Noru a serious threat to southern Japan

New African wave could develop, 91E not very likely to develop, Noru a serious threat to southern Japan

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There are several areas to watch in the Northern Hemisphere tropics today, but the Atlantic and East Pacific both do not have a tropical cyclone active – the first occurrence of such event since July 7. In the Atlantic, a tropical wave has a chance to develop into the Atlantic’s next tropical cyclone, and could end up as a long-tracked storm. In the Eastern Pacific, Invest 91E has become slightly better organized today, but is not very likely to develop…

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Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

Special Update: Invest 91E organizing quickly, could become Tropical Depression Two-E as soon as tomorrow

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Invest 91E has substantially improved in organization since this morning. The system has had persistent deep convection this afternoon, but the convective activity is currently not quite well organized enough for the system to be designated a tropical depression. As of their 5:00 PM PDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center raised the two-day development chances to 70 percent and the five-day probability to 80 percent. 91E is currently a sprawling area of low pressure with a large…

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora makes landfall, Invest 91E is born in East Pacific

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Severe Cyclonic Storm Mora made landfall early Tuesday around 7:30 a.m. local time in southeastern Bangladesh. The storm had 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots (75 mph – equivalent to a minimal category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale), and 3-minute sustained winds of 60 knots (70 mph), at the time of landfall. The estimated minimum pressure was 978 mbar. Mora was the first Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone of 2017 to have 1-minute sustained winds of 65 knots or greater, making it the Northern…

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