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TS Watches issued for Southern California for the first time on record as Hilary reaches Category 4 status; Atlantic activity coming soon

TS Watches issued for Southern California for the first time on record as Hilary reaches Category 4 status; Atlantic activity coming soon

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For the first time ever on Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of Southern California, as Hurricane Hilary rapidly intensified to Category 4 strength. Hilary is likely going to be a high-impact event for the northern Baja California peninsula as well as the southwestern United States. As of 12:00 a.m. MDT (2:00 p.m. EDT) Friday, Hurricane Hilary was centered near 18.2°N 111.8°W, and was moving northwestward at approximately 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds…

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Atlantic heating up: Invests 98L and 99L could develop this weekend

Atlantic heating up: Invests 98L and 99L could develop this weekend

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Although Tropical Depression Chantal is very close to becoming a remnant low, the Atlantic likely won’t be entering a lull, as two disturbances have a shot at becoming tropical cyclones this weekend. The first, Invest 98L, is a trough of low pressure just east of South Florida, and is likely to become a tropical depression by Sunday as it moves northeastward. The second, Invest 99L, is a small area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic that is gradually…

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Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

Four systems to watch in the Atlantic for potential development

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Although the Atlantic currently has no tropical cyclones active, there are four systems being monitored for potential development. The first, Invest 97L, is an area of low pressure east of the Windward Islands which is headed for less favorable conditions, and development appears unlikely. The second, Invest 98L, is a broad area of low pressure southeast of Bermuda, which could gradually gain tropical characteristics some time next week. The third, Invest 99L, is a vigorous tropical wave which has recently…

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Ernesto holding on as a tropical storm, Lane a Category 2 hurricane, 99L not expected to develop

Ernesto holding on as a tropical storm, Lane a Category 2 hurricane, 99L not expected to develop

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Tropical Storm Ernesto is holding on as a tropical storm over the Northeastern Atlantic despite cold sea surface temperatures, but should transition into a post-tropical cyclone tonight. In the eastern Pacific, Lane has intensified into a Category 2 hurricane, and some additional intensification is likely over the next day or two as it heads for the Central Pacific. As of 5:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Ernesto was centered near 49.1°N 29.8°W, and was moving northeastward at about 31 mph….

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Ernesto and Lane gain strength, Invest 99L has a low chance to develop

Ernesto and Lane gain strength, Invest 99L has a low chance to develop

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto over the Northern Atlantic and Tropical Storm Lane over the eastern Pacific have both intensified since yesterday. Ernesto is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, while Lane is likely to continue to strengthen and become a major hurricane as it enters the Central Pacific. In the tropical Atlantic, a tropical wave, Invest 99L, has a low chance to develop into a weak tropical cyclone as it approaches the Windward Islands this weekend. Ernesto slightly stronger…

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Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

Invest 99L a little better organized this evening, but not likely to develop

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For the first time since the morning of August 23, no tropical cyclones are active in the Atlantic basin, as Lee and Maria have both transitioned into extratropical lows. There is only one disturbance that has a chance to develop in the short term – Invest 99L, which is located near the coast of Northeastern Florida. 99L has become better organized this evening, with thunderstorm activity increasing to the east of the center. As of 00:00 UTC Sunday, Invest 99L…

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Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

Two disturbances to watch in the Atlantic – neither likely to become significant storms

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With Tropical Storms Lee and Maria expected to both turn extratropical on Saturday, the 37-day streak with an Atlantic tropical cyclone active at all times is in jeopardy. There are two new tropical disturbances that may develop into a tropical cyclone over the next few days (including Invest 99L) – but neither is likely to become a hurricane or a major threat. The first one, Invest 99L, is a weak area of low pressure located just inland over Southern Florida….

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Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

Invest 99L may develop over next few days east of Florida

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A large area of disturbed weather – designated Invest 99L – has developed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba, and the Florida Straits. This area of disturbed weather has moderate potential to develop into a weak tropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. As of 00:00 UTC Friday, Invest 99L was centered near 24.2°N 79.9°W, and was moving slowly northward. Maximum sustained winds were 20 knots (25 mph), with an estimated minimum pressure of 1010 mb. On Friday, an area of low…

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Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

Invests 99L in Atlantic, 92E in Eastern Pacific could develop this weekend

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Two investigative areas “invests” – one over the Atlantic (Invest 99L) and one over the Eastern Pacific (92E) have a good chance to develop into tropical depressions this weekend. 99L – an area of low pressure we have been tracking in the Atlantic for over a week – is expected to move into a more conducive environment for development this weekend as wind shear is expected to decrease. Invest 92E, associated with the remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin, is very…

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Franklin dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, but could regenerate over the Eastern Pacific, tenacious Invest 99L still could develop

Franklin dissipates over the mountains of Mexico, but could regenerate over the Eastern Pacific, tenacious Invest 99L still could develop

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Hurricane Franklin made landfall in the Mexican state of Veracruz around 1:00 a.m. CDT as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (85 mph) and a minimum pressure of 988 mb. Franklin’s circulation quickly dissipated over the mountains of central Mexico. However, the mid-level remnant energy of Franklin has a medium chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone over the Eastern Pacific, but if regeneration does occur, the new storm should be short-lived. Invest 99L remains…

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